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 Forum index » Diversions » Perplex City Puzzle Cards » PXC: Blue Puzzle Cards
[PUZZLE] #145 - Blue - The Red Ace
Moderators: AnthraX101, bagsbee, BrianEnigma, cassandra, Giskard, lhall, Mikeyj, myf, poozle, RobMagus, xnbomb
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baf
Boot

Joined: 29 Mar 2006
Posts: 46

 		No one's saying that there are 46 cards left undealt. The number of cards left in the deck is unimportant. The important thing is the number of possibilities remaining. Since you've only seen six cards, there are 46 cards that you haven't seen, and the next card could be any one of those 46 with equal likelihood.

PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2006 2:30 am
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Aerialbomb
Greenhorn

Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 4

 		The correct play in early postion would be to raise pre-flop with a pair of aces since aces play poorly against a large field. The raise will limit the players limping in. He just called the big blind.

With 2 spades on the flop the correct play early postion for someone that paired his Ace would be to bet. That would make it incorrect for someone drawing to a flush or a straight to call since the odds for a straight is 8/47 and a flush is 9/47.

The same would hold true on the turn if he held 3 aces. If he had made 4 aces he would be better to make a smaller bet or a check and let the other player catch up. Tough to put someone on a Straight Flush Draw.

That's the way I'd play it anyway.........

PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2006 1:49 pm
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torne
Greenhorn

Joined: 26 Aug 2006
Posts: 3
Location: London, UK
Archimedea wrote:
I'm stuck here - how are there 46 cards left?

There are 4 in the middle; 2 in each player's hand (of 2 players) out of 52 to start with so there should be 44 left.

The two cards in the other player's hand don't affect the odds. It doesn't matter how many cards are left in the deck, it only matters how many cards she doesn't know - which is every card other than the two she holds, and the four on the table, leaving 46. It would be the exact same odds even if there were still more players in the game.

Quote:

This is assuming all the other players' cards have been put back into the deck after they folded - I didn't think this happened but I am not very well up on poker and, as we aren't told how many other players there were, I suppose it must have done.

The other players' cards are not returned to the pack, but they are not revealed either - you don't show your cards when you fold. So, however many other players there are and whether they have folded or not is totally irrelevant to the odds of her getting a particular hand on the river as they contribute no information, and thus it doesn't matter that the card doesn't tell you how many players already folded.

You could make certain predictions about what cards the other players who folded were holding based on what you believed their strategies to be (for example, it's unlikely that a player holding 5s and 4s would have folded at this stage, as they would have the same chance of getting a straight flush as the answer to this card) - this information could then be used to change your assumptions about which cards remain in the deck. However, this is not possible to do in a purely mathematical fashion, since other poker players do not play 'perfectly' by the odds even if they were capable of doing so (bluffing and other strategic moves). It's this kind of thinking, conscious or unconscious, that helps to make a good poker player, though.

Hope that explains the situation a bit better (and I hope that my digression into poker theory was at least interesting).

Edit: Whoops, didn't realise someone else had already replied to this, I missed the 'next page' link Smile Nevermind, my explanation stands, and is slightly more verbose *grin*

PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2006 6:09 pm
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ShadowScythe
Guest


 		Help Please...
HI... I've been tracking through this thread and I cannot seem to get the right answer for the card. I understand the odds quite well but I'm unable to figgure out what answer the site is lookig for..

Thanks for your help.

Embarassed

-ShadowScythe

PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:20 am
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ShadowScythe
Guest


 		yeah... mybad...
Edit to previous post
Nevermind GF helped me to decipher it...

Spoiler (Rollover to View):

Odds of a killer straight flush: 1/23
Odds of making any straight or flush on the river: 5/46


It's all int he previous posts but I'm just daft apparently.

-SS

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:57 pm
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