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 Forum index » Diversions » Perplex City Puzzle Cards » PXC: Silver Puzzle Cards
[PUZZLE] #251 - Silver - The Thirteenth Labour - READ POST#1
Moderators: AnthraX101, bagsbee, BrianEnigma, cassandra, Giskard, lhall, Mikeyj, myf, poozle, RobMagus, xnbomb
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chimera245
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Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 209

 		Sorry jazzychad - been a bit busy doing RL stuff.

3 Million and 20% passed, and the new WU assignment algorithm is settling in nicely.

As for wild stabs in the dark - feel free, noone is going to object if you can guess the answer. Also if you look back in the other thread, there are a couple of online solvers where you can put in Key guesses.

Back in the distributed effort we are on Cx------, so Bastardo is out as a key, as is Chipmunk along with all other combinations starting with a digit, A, B or C (except Cx, Cy or Cz for the next 24 hours or so).

PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 2:27 am
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Guin
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Joined: 11 Jan 2006
Posts: 400
Location: Antartica

 		well done to us all Smile

We have really stumped up some big numbers in the last week - no sooner do I update the site / LJ than my news is old news.

Im going to update the cards needed list tonight as we have only a few to collect. (10 if i recall off the top of my head) - once again thanks to all those who have generously thrown some of their spare silves and blacks at the prize pool.

Thanks for all the support guys
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So long and thanks for all the fish! Trout

PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:53 am
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Seej
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Joined: 30 Nov 2004
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jazzychad wrote:
Thread's been quiet lately... weird...

Surely there's not much left to post. Between this and the other thread there's more text been written than, well, The Postcard Thread (*Seej shudders at the memory*).

I do have one question for the maths wizards among us though (Jeb?) - am I correct in thinking that the percentage that we have completed is also the probability of us having found the key by now (assuming of course that our assumptions about the key are correct)? Or in other words, was there a 20% (1 in 5) chance of us finding it by now? Cos those aren't awful odds...

Or is there some wacky compound probability-thing that's too complicated for my engineer brain?

PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:19 am
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mac_monkey
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Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Posts: 250

 		Urm logically (I dont know if this is correct) but by the law of averages we assume that the key is in the middle (50%) of the remaining keyspace...as there is the same chance of finding it at 50% as there was before. So at 20% If I am correct by maths (which doesnt work with random stuff like this) we would expect to find the key at 100-20=80/2=40% on top of where we are now..so at 60% of the total keyspace???

Anyone have a better idea
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:45 am
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SteveC
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 		I have no earthly clue what macmonkey is on about - I asked for a single syllable re-phrase on IRC, but didn't really understand that either.. But.. To answer Seej's question, Umm.. "Yes".

At 50% of the keyspace, we'll be a coin toss away from finding the key - at 20% we're at 1/5 chances..

At 99%, Chimera, Guin and some others have exit strategies planned involving fake passports, the president of Bolivia and using up most of their savings. But that's another story.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:37 am
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mac_monkey
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Joined: 25 Feb 2006
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 		Yes I think the conclusion we can get from this is:

1)that-eh eh eh is not 1 syllable.

And

2)I am completely bonkers
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:43 am
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SteveC
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 		To combine two thoughts above though..

I'm 98% sure we won't get 98% of the way through the keyspace without finding a key, but if we do, we're more likely than not to find the key at 99%.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:51 am
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Frenzy
Boot

Joined: 11 Apr 2006
Posts: 11
Location: Canada
SteveC wrote:
I'm 98% sure we won't get 98% of the way through the keyspace without finding a key, but if we do, we're more likely than not to find the key at 99%.


Actually, wouldn't we be AS likely to find the key at 99%? Technically, at 98% there's only 2% left, so there's AS much chance (that is, 1 in 2) that we find it at 99%. No?

It's like flipping a coin: you always have a 50% chance at getting heads or tails, regardless of what the previous flips were.

PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:37 am
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SteveC
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 		Weellll, if you want to be picky, a coin toss isn't 50/50 - it COULD land on it's side.

Anyone got an infinite improbability drive here? If we engage that, we could test the ASCII of "FIVECOWS" again...
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...and no, I didn't reverse engineer or bruteforce anything to form this opinion.

PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:42 am
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Frenzy
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Joined: 11 Apr 2006
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chimera245 wrote:
"...we are on Cx------, so Bastardo is out as a key, as is Chipmunk along with all other combinations starting with a digit, A, B or C (except Cx, Cy or Cz for the next 24 hours or so).


So long as MC didn't decide to make the key "ZYGOTE99" or something, we should be in good shape.

PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:44 am
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mac_monkey
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Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Posts: 250

 		Has anyone tried FIVECOWS?

haha rofl!

Sorry guys couldn't resist Rolling Eyes
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:50 am
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Guin
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Joined: 11 Jan 2006
Posts: 400
Location: Antartica

 		on another note Smile

I have got the following remaining to find for the prize pool:

Black:
#199 Three

Silver:
#229 Ball Night
#232 Water Music
#234 Mosaically CHallenged
#238 Reimann (come on these should be being thrown at me!)
#240 Elucidate
#242 Ciphers of History
#245 Relativity
#246 Homage in Glass
#248 Differently Lethal

SteveC wrote:
At 99%, Chimera, Guin and some others have exit strategies planned involving fake passports, the president of Bolivia and using up most of their savings. But that's another story.


My trusty airmiles will certainly come in handy Smile
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So long and thanks for all the fish! Trout

PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:44 pm
Last edited by Guin on Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:46 am; edited 1 time in total
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Joe
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Joined: 15 May 2006
Posts: 102
Location: Stavromula Beta
SteveC wrote:
we're more likely than not to find the key at 99%.


This sounds like the Jaunty Paul card..

(assuming that the key is within the search parameters)
Statistically we've got a better chance of finding it in the last two percent once we get there, as well.. it's all that's left..

Logically we won't, as it's probably something like ZW-ZZ and there are only so many words phrases that fit that.. (zooboomafoo?)

Realistically, (as someone mentioned earlier) Mind Candy could have speculated that we'd be brute forcing it and the key could be ZZZZZYEK so Riemann won't be the only unsolved card..

personally I think the key has something to do with the characters in the word THIRTEEN, which will generate a message that is encoded in ROT-13.. but that's only because I had a dream where we solved it and that was the answer..
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 11:33 pm
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Sh1ft
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Joined: 12 Nov 2003
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Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

 		No way, the correct key will be found at 33.33 percent!!!!!

I can feel it.

PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:29 am
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SteveC
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Joe wrote:


Realistically, (as someone mentioned earlier) Mind Candy could have speculated that we'd be brute forcing it and the key could be ZZZZZYEK so Riemann won't be the only unsolved card..



If MC have chosen a random key, eg, one that's not in some way guessable (such as 46:69:76:65:43:6F:77:73), then we're screwed - it effectively makes the card unsolveable with our resources.

This attack is predicated on the assumption that they're not a bunch of evil bastards who get a kick out of making people's life a misery. It's funny that you mention Riemann Evil or Very Mad
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...and no, I didn't reverse engineer or bruteforce anything to form this opinion.

PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:38 am
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