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 Forum index » Archive » Archive: Perplex City » PXC: General/Updates
[UPDATE] Anna Heath 2nd May 2006 - Ceretin C6
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Muffin
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Or it was stolen so that it could be synthesised by another black market outfit then sold on in larger quantities - clean room?
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 1:13 pm
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Rand0m
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duckiemonster wrote:
Or Anna. I maintain that she's a feisty one.


I really, really don't trust her... she's driven this episode forward single-handedly... "oh Tippy said this", "oh, I met that researcher", "oh, why don't you try the other". If she's our uber-villain then we're happily following a false trail of her design.
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 1:15 pm
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toongoon
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Muffin wrote:
Or it was stolen so that it could be synthesised by another black market outfit then sold on in larger quantities - clean room?


I'm of this view as well. We already know there is a market for conterfeit ceretin. An illegal "generic" manufacturer or a competitor woudl spend big money to have this stuff.

It appears that this study's computer simulatations postulate that the alpha2 sub-unit is an issue. This was most likely not common knowledge prior to this publication.

PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 1:42 pm
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Mikeyj
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duckiemonster wrote:

This paper looks good in terms of what it's supposed to report, the language etc, so I think we can safely assume it's genuine.


I agree...it made me chuckle actually...they even have a stupidly high page number on the bottom (despite the fact most actual monthly issues are rarely more than "pamplet" in thickness). They don't put the error bars on the G5 group, but if they were there HG would easily have been covered (I've never done any clinical research, but if my error bars were ever that big I'd be a bit pissed off!)

I'm not convinced about HG. Simply referring to people by their initials is fairly crappy anonymity. Anyone done any clinical trials...preferably people who aren't still puffed up from head to foot and can still type?

Out of interest am I understanding the composition of Ceretin? It seems to be a cocktail of different molecules, aimed at different things, one of which is a Ceretiva derivative, of which the alpha-2 subunit is the one causing the trouble?
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 1:46 pm
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number9dream
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Mikeyj wrote:
I'm not convinced about HG. Simply referring to people by their initials is fairly crappy anonymity. Anyone done any clinical trials...preferably people who aren't still puffed up from head to foot and can still type?


While i have never been in one and am thus still able to type after a fashion, i have been running them for years. You're right about the anonymity, there is no way that you would be able to use a participant's initials.

We are talking about Perplex City though, where, as far as I'm aware, the recent and much loved EU Clinical Trials Directive has yet to take effect.

I'm off to India to pump unsuspecting and legally unprotected innocents full of lethal cocktails of experimental drugs..... Confused
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 1:52 pm
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CoolCats712
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Muffin wrote:
Or it was stolen so that it could be synthesised by another black market outfit then sold on in larger quantities - clean room?


I'd agree. If black market Ceretin really is such a big business, it would be in the interests of the drug pirates to start churning out a Sharp Red No. 6 even before the official version hits the streets.
However, if this is the case and Isaac picked up a dose of the new black market stuff (though it's still odd to think of a well-off librarian like him using illicit stuff; maybe he's desperate for the enhanced effects?) this shoots holes in the theory that he was specifically targeted for murder, and makes it instead an accidental death. Granted, Cognivia would probably want *any* deaths connected with its new product covered up, especially if it's from someone who wasn't one of the official test subjects, so this may be valid as well, but let's assume it's murder.
It's only a murder if someone who knew about the likelihood of overdose when mixed with other generations of Ceretin slipped him one, or just gave him one without telling him about it. So this suggests to me that anyone who intentionally did this had to have access to the research results before Isaac died. Rayleigh, Thomson, and Hodgkins? Then again, if potential interactions with other forms of Ceretin was part of the informed consent, it still could be HG.
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 1:52 pm
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justdig
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Well if this stuff does start getting traded and manufactured in the black market, that'd surely give Cognivia all the more incentive to do our leg-work for us in tracking down whoever first stole it.

PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 2:19 pm
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duckiemonster
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number9dream wrote:
You're right about the anonymity, there is no way that you would be able to use a participant's initials.


It's fairly commonplace in medical journals and the like as a method of referring to a patient's case.
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 2:22 pm
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Ramazel
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There's one thing I don't get about this spec (HG swapping the pills to get the G6). This was supposed to be a double-blind trial, i.e. neither the subjects nor the doctors knew who was getting G6, G5 or the placebo. So HG only had a chance in 3 of getting G6...

PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 2:36 pm
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Fiera
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Mikeyj wrote:
they even have a stupidly high page number on the bottom (despite the fact most actual monthly issues are rarely more than "pamplet" in thickness).
Actually, a lot of journals will continue page numbers from previous journals. It depends on the individual journal, they all have different formats (trust me, I type them at work enough!). Perhaps this is a clue to see if there are previous articles or Letters to the Editor we can get someone to find for us?

PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 3:05 pm
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number9dream
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duckiemonster wrote:
number9dream wrote:
You're right about the anonymity, there is no way that you would be able to use a participant's initials.


It's fairly commonplace in medical journals and the like as a method of referring to a patient's case.


Of course it is in case reporting or case-study research.

However, you would never get an RCT study (such as this one) funded or through ethics if you were reporting data which may compromise the anonymity of the particpants by printing their initials. That is one of the cardinal rules on Earth anyway....
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 3:08 pm
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Belogroak
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I have done some trials previously at university, and in my experience they will quite often use a test group more than once.

This looks like much as I would expect for a preliminary test group its small and short. I would expect later trials to be wider and longer probably over a 2-3 week period.

The point about HG only being able to swipe one sample in the first test is true, This means that HG had a one in three chance of getting the G6 and being a test anomaly. It is worth noting this would either rule HG out of further testing, or be the focus of atttention in further testing.

The way to ensure a greater possibility of swiping C6 would be to have 2 people involved in the testing, both swiping and replacing with C5, this would not be noticed in the C5 group but would in either the placebo or G6 group.

Now we have 2 people we are suspicious of in the relevant age group, one of whom was the last to see Cymbalisty alive, the other has recently disappeared on a "holiday".

Could it be Jason was HG (excluded from future trials) and Miranda was the other tester who has recently gone back in for further trials (and further supplies)?

Both had opportunity to slip Ceretin 6 to Cymbalisty at work, which on its own would not have killed him, however as soon as he took his usual C5 cocktail at home, it then caused the overdose. I mean how often do you ask a colleague for headache tablets if you run out?

To me Jason is the logical suspect as he knew about the diary (I still think that last page is a fake) and he walked cymbalisty home that night.

Bel

PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 3:56 pm
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Tintintin
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Forgive a n00b their first post...

Some further spec- it could have been the person administering the C6, not the subject, that swapped it for C5- although it being a double blind test means that neither would in theory be aware of which variety the Ceretin being tested was. Perhaps an accidental misplacing of the C6...? Or is there someone being naughty at Cognivia?

("is this a trout I see before me, the tail outstretched towards my hand...?" Wink )

PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 5:24 pm
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duckiemonster
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No trouts at all, an insightful and contributary first post. Welcome.

I'd completely missed the 'double blind' thing in the text... just goes to show how much you forget about reading papers in a year!

/me trouts self
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 6:55 pm
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Ashin
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Has it been clarified anywhere how Ceretin is normally taken?

It seems odd to me that it would be consumed in liquid form, simply because it's hard to make measurements, it's messy, and you have to carry around a large package (you almost never see individual liquid doses).

But if it comes in pill form, then Cymablisty's coffee cup takes on a different meaning because he might not have even known he was taking anything.

As for this test, it would be easy for someone to swipe the C6 by simply not swallowing the pill. Everything looks right from the examiner's point of view, but then they walk out with the goods still in their mouth.

PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2006 9:15 pm
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