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 Forum index » Chaotic Fiction » Marble Hornets
[HOT!] @MarbleHornets Twitter.
Moderators: Giskard, JKatkina, Zarggg
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Sha Noran
Entrenched


Joined: 29 Apr 2013
Posts: 919

DHawk314 wrote:
You guys are so stupid. The first code was a base64 code. The second code in base64 goes to a YouTube video. The chances of that being a coincidence are so close to zero. It's not just like, oh hey what a coincidence, close to zero chance, it's like, the level of close to zero that scientists say are negligible when they dp experiments. It's virtually impossible, and modifer of virtually is really just a technicality. Anyone who knows anything about statistics will tell you there's no way.

Also, this doesn't count as a contradiction to the OOG statement that there won't be other YouTube channels, like at all really. No one's implying Troy uploaded the stupid computer video, they're implying that Troy wanted the answer to the first tweet to be a keyboard so he Googled keyboard video or something and had totheark link to it. That's not even remotely implausible, at all. That's like saying Jay can't reply to tweets on Twitter because that links to other people's Twitters so it's not "self contained" enough.


Fully agreed, though I wouldn't have said it quite as harshly myself to avoid stepping on toes, but... Yeah what he said.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:44 pm
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SilentMedusa
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Joined: 04 Jul 2013
Posts: 904

Wow. Just wow. And it's not even the usual suspects creating all the drama this time Shocked .

I have two possibilities: 1) TTA did indeed send us to a video of someone typing to show us "how hands talk". I...don't really think it's anything but a cool coincidence, myself. Which leads me to:

2) the second tweet isn't a code at all; it's gibberish. The same kind we've gotten twice that I remember -entry #21, when Jay fell off the ladder he was climbing, and entry #72, when The Operator turned day into night.

I believe the second theory is more likely to be right. I can easily see Hoody -who I believe to be TTA- having what he was trying to tweet get messed up by interference caused by TO, and not noticing because he was too busy running for his life.

Of course, the most likely scenario is that the second tweet is a code, and we just haven't figured out how to solve it yet.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:47 pm
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Sha Noran
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Joined: 29 Apr 2013
Posts: 919

Is there any chance of combining the second tweet from just now with the garbled nonsense tweet from 72ish? Maybe together they are a code... Just throwing out the idea.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:53 pm
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DHawk314
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Joined: 17 May 2011
Posts: 1087

The chance of the YouTube thing being a coincidence is asymptotic to zero. I realize it's harsh to say "You guys are so stupid" but really, YouTube urls don't just randomly show up. That would never, ever happen, like ever. The only reason you'd think that was happening would be because you don't know what you're talking about. It just doesn't work like that. I don't know what else to tell you.
_________________
I was just lurking around the forums and i have no idea who MH is

I'm in here sometimes: http://tinychat.com/thehoodyhub


PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:56 pm
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AbyssalRook
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Joined: 04 Dec 2013
Posts: 48

SilentMedusa wrote:
Wow. Just wow. And it's not even the usual suspects creating all the drama this time Shocked .

I have two possibilities: 1) TTA did indeed send us to a video of someone typing to show us "how hands talk". I...don't really think it's anything but a cool coincidence, myself. Which leads me to:

2) the second tweet isn't a code at all; it's gibberish. The same kind we've gotten twice that I remember -entry #21, when Jay fell off the ladder he was climbing, and entry #72, when The Operator turned day into night.

I believe the second theory is more likely to be right. I can easily see Hoody -who I believe to be TTA- having what he was trying to tweet get messed up by interference caused by TO, and not noticing because he was too busy running for his life.

Of course, the most likely scenario is that the second tweet is a code, and we just haven't figured out how to solve it yet.


...I don't get it. Why is it so hard to believe that this is the proper solution?

Also, you directly contradicted yourself. "I believe the second theory is more likely to be right", meaning you think the second tweet is gibberish and means nothing, and "The most likely scenario is that the second tweet is a code", meaning you think the second tweet is NOT just gibberish and does in fact mean something.

But, really, much more importantly, why is it so hard to believe that the video, which answers the riddle perfectly well, cannot possibly be the right solution? Is it really more likely that a random smattering of letters and numbers tossed at the screen just so happened to decode through the same cipher as the previous tweet into a video code which provided a perfectly correct answer to said first tweet than it is that it was meant to be found that way?

I don't mean to be harsh either. I really and truly want to understand where this mindset comes from, because right now I don't. I don't get it at all.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:03 pm
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censura_umbra
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Joined: 13 Aug 2012
Posts: 494

DHawk314 wrote:
The chance of the YouTube thing being a coincidence is asymptotic to zero. I realize it's harsh to say "You guys are so stupid" but really, YouTube urls don't just randomly show up. That would never, ever happen, like ever. The only reason you'd think that was happening would be because you don't know what you're talking about. It just doesn't work like that. I don't know what else to tell you.


I think it is time to give up. They are just lacking too much sense to understand the science behind it. Anyone that says this video was found because of a coincidence and not because Troy wanted us to find it is either a) not seeing the MANY posts about how impossible that is. or b) Are very very very [Redacted because The Operator is right]

Seriously, this is just so obvious that I'm literally shaking my head at all of you. I feel like I'm arguing with people that think the world was created 6000 years ago or that space is a lie.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:04 pm
Last edited by censura_umbra on Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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TheOperator
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Joined: 20 Nov 2012
Posts: 711
Location: You don't wanna know

TheJoker wrote:
On a side note, has anyone contacted Jay/Troy about this? Surely the best way to settle this would be to just try to get a direct confirmation, no?


As quiet as Jay is on Twitter these days, I'd say the best bet would be trying to get a response from him. Troy probably wouldn't confirm or deny anything like this OOG, unless maybe if he got worried that the guy who uploaded the video was getting unwanted attention.

Though honestly I think Troy probably either knew the guy who uploaded the video or just went "hey, mind if I use your video as the solution to this little riddle I have in my popular internet series? Just thought I'd warn you in case you didn't want your views increasing by 10 times."

Also quit the insulting. It was bad enough when just the, er... non-believers were doing it.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:07 pm
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TheJoker
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Joined: 14 May 2013
Posts: 1135
Location: Wisconsin

I don't know if Troy has ever confirmed anything OOG, but I remember during the Surveillance mess someone Facebook messaged him a potential solution and he did debunk it OOG. So it couldn't hurt to try.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:20 pm
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censura_umbra
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Joined: 13 Aug 2012
Posts: 494

TheJoker wrote:
I don't know if Troy has ever confirmed anything OOG, but I remember during the Surveillance mess someone Facebook messaged him a potential solution and he did debunk it OOG. So it couldn't hurt to try.


I tweeted @WhataTroy and asked him to please tweet from @marblehornets and confirm the solution, or at least the existence of the video/.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:23 pm
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SilentMedusa
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Joined: 04 Jul 2013
Posts: 904

AbyssalRook wrote:
SilentMedusa wrote:
Wow. Just wow. And it's not even the usual suspects creating all the drama this time Shocked .

I have two possibilities: 1) TTA did indeed send us to a video of someone typing to show us "how hands talk". I...don't really think it's anything but a cool coincidence, myself. Which leads me to:

2) the second tweet isn't a code at all; it's gibberish. The same kind we've gotten twice that I remember -entry #21, when Jay fell off the ladder he was climbing, and entry #72, when The Operator turned day into night.

I believe the second theory is more likely to be right. I can easily see Hoody -who I believe to be TTA- having what he was trying to tweet get messed up by interference caused by TO, and not noticing because he was too busy running for his life.

Of course, the most likely scenario is that the second tweet is a code, and we just haven't figured out how to solve it yet.


...I don't get it. Why is it so hard to believe that this is the proper solution?

Also, you directly contradicted yourself. "I believe the second theory is more likely to be right", meaning you think the second tweet is gibberish and means nothing, and "The most likely scenario is that the second tweet is a code", meaning you think the second tweet is NOT just gibberish and does in fact mean something.

But, really, much more importantly, why is it so hard to believe that the video, which answers the riddle perfectly well, cannot possibly be the right solution? Is it really more likely that a random smattering of letters and numbers tossed at the screen just so happened to decode through the same cipher as the previous tweet into a video code which provided a perfectly correct answer to said first tweet than it is that it was meant to be found that way?

I don't mean to be harsh either. I really and truly want to understand where this mindset comes from, because right now I don't. I don't get it at all.


I meant, of the two theories I was suggesting, #2 was probably the right one. In the big picture, I realize the third option is probably what's actually happening.

As to why I have trouble believing the correct solution is a link to a video of someone typing even though it makes perfect sense (or seems to), it's simple: As far as I recall, TTA has never given us a link to a video that he didn't make and upload himself, let alone put a link in one of his codes. Ever. Why, this close to end game, would he suddenly change his M.O.? I don't think he would. Therefore, I think it's a coincidence.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:39 pm
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censura_umbra
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Joined: 13 Aug 2012
Posts: 494

I don't see why he WOULDN'T try something new BUT at LEAST stop calling it a coincidence! It isn't! It very very very much ISN'T. It is much more likely to be an accident! Like TTA accidentally had the end of the URL of that video still in his clipboard instead of what he actually wanted and ACCIDENTALLY pasted that instead. That is MUCH more likely.

Spoiler (Rollover to View):
That sounds ridiculous and unlikely doesn't it? STILL WAY MORE LIKELY THAN IT BEING A COINCIDENCE! Do you yet understand how unlikely it is? You are more likely to be struck by lightening....twice.... in the same spot.....within 5 minutes of each other.


PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:50 pm
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AbyssalRook
Boot

Joined: 04 Dec 2013
Posts: 48

SilentMedusa wrote:

I meant, of the two theories I was suggesting, #2 was probably the right one. In the big picture, I realize the third option is probably what's actually happening.

As to why I have trouble believing the correct solution is a link to a video of someone typing even though it makes perfect sense (or seems to), it's simple: As far as I recall, TTA has never given us a link to a video that he didn't make and upload himself, let alone put a link in one of his codes. Ever. Why, this close to end game, would he suddenly change his M.O.? I don't think he would. Therefore, I think it's a coincidence.


I think there are several reasons he would change his M.O. Firstly, why not? It's not like TTA is some absolutely by the book individual to begin with.

Second: He posted this on a hacked twitter account. He wanted to be in and out of it as quickly as he could. It's possible that he found a window of opportunity that he didn't expect when Jay decided to bide his time, so he threw something together quickly, as he didn't know how much time he'd have.

Third: The closer and closer this gets to the conclusion, the more stress has got to be pounding down on TTA. If TTA is indeed Hoodie, which seems to be the case, we know that he's not as in control as the TTA videos tend to lead you to believe. Jay surprised him several times already, and I think it's coming to the point in the game where TTA can't predict what's going to happen anymore.

Forth: TTA could be, and probably has been, multiple people. A change in MO is to be expected, I think.

There are a lot of reasons and explanations that would rectify this apparent change in mannerisms, but the sheer impossibility of hitting that video, or a video like it, by random chance is astronomical. Literally on a cosmic scale. One in a billion, billion. I'll take the "TTA changed his MO" odds over that any day.

But again, I'm definitely open to alternate solutions to this, if anyone can find them.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:56 pm
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Sha Noran
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Joined: 29 Apr 2013
Posts: 919

It bothers me a bit that everyone is saying TTA has never done something like this... No he never linked to another video, but he has used stock footage on several occasions, including in Quadrant (as far as I can tell the guy with something in his mouth is stock footage of someone receiving shock therapy). In this instance he didn't edit it into the video, but I take the tweets as almost a PS to the video, like he was probably in a hurry to upload it given the circumstances of the characters currently, then went back and looked and realized he had failed to put in a key hint to breaking his own code.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:02 pm
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DHawk314
Entrenched


Joined: 17 May 2011
Posts: 1087

There's nothing particularly subversive about totheark linking to a YouTube video. He does a lot of weird shit with codes, and he's constantly doing new things. I don't see why that is a deal.

I'm officially tired of this of having this conversation. A random 11 digit code using letters and numbers could be any of over 131 quadrillion codes, it's not gonna randomly pop out a YouTube video, literally nothing that unlikely has ever happened since the exact right combination of elements existed in the early universe allowing stars to form. You don't know how to math if you think that happened. This is just a math problem. I'm not gonna make anymore long, logical arguments about why 2+2=4, it just does. If you all want to keep having this conversation do it, I refuse to take part in it.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:14 pm
Last edited by DHawk314 on Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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TheJoker
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Joined: 14 May 2013
Posts: 1135
Location: Wisconsin

He has indeed used stock footage to communicate his message before. For that matter, there was one video in S1 where he was able to create a complete, coherent message that was actually somewhat relevant just by using audio from some old movie. Using other resources to get something across in a roundabout way isn't completely removed from his MO.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:15 pm
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