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 Forum index » Archive » Archive: General » ARG: We Lost Our Gold
Episode 5 stuff
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joemanfro
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 		Episode 5 stuff
As promised, here is a thread to hold my work on Episode 5 thus far. My theories here are NOWHERE near as complete as they are on episode 3, but there is a fair amount here and it's substantial enough that it felt worthy of sharing. The episodes seem to be getting more complicated as we progress, but I am trying as hard as I can to hold true to my philosophy of keeping the clues simple.

FORWARD AND APPROACH:
In this thread, I am going to step into the unknown and split my work up by crew member. They are split at this point, after all, and I chose to tackle each individually until the re-joining in Episode 6. My approach to creating this tracing/drawing has pretty much just been connecting the dots. I feel there are always a few key moments where we go "Well that's DEFINITELY a clue", and I choose to capture those locations (the "dots" if you will) and plot them. Finding how they are connected usually comes later, but I am finding it is a productive approach. In this thread (unlike Episode 3's) I present to you many dots. Until I figure out how (if at all) these dots are connected, most of the lines will have to wait.

You'll note that I begin with Mulligan, whose path has always worked out rather ideally for me, and remains somewhat of a "key" to how I HOPE this episode works. The unfortunate part is that I have yet to apply the strategy used to map his path to the other crew members QUITE SO successfully, without feeling like I am "stretching" things. I remain hopeful that I am simply overlooking something for the other 3, and challenge you all to help me find out where I've gone wrong.

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS (ALL CREW MEMBERS)

There are a LOT of numbers in this episode. I find it hard to believe that every single number is a clue, but I haven't yet ruled it out. However, I believe very strongly in consistency across the episode. For instance, if 'JJ' represents taking the J train in the first minute of the episode, then I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that 345 represents taking the 34 bus to 5th ave in the next minute. If cards represent buses, then cards represent buses. If they represent subway trains, then they should continue to represent subway trains. Changing the meaning of clue components over the course of an episode introduces an incredible amount of variability and ambiguity that I don't think the creators expect us to figure out. Consistency makes much more sense, so I strive to come up with clues that fit that philosophy.

Chip Counts:
I believe the chip counts are insignificant so far. I come to this conclusion not only because I can't seem to draw any sort of numerical connection between them and a subway/bus/road map, but because I have used Excel to calculate the changes in crew member chip counts and pot increases, and the math in the episode is sometimes wrong--not just completely wrong, but simple math errors that I can look at and say "oh they totally added 150 instead of 50 here" and that hint of carelessness. If the chip counts were important, I think the creators would pay much more attention to accuracy. Especially now that the clues are so set in stone and they've since washed their hands of the situation. Why leave behind a bad clue? Until further notice, I'm declaring chip counts insignificant, here only for the sake of moving the story. Fun fact: the dollar values always add up to $10,000.

Win Percentages:
I haven't completely ruled these out yet as significant indicators, but I'm close to it. Here's why: the percentages are 100% correct up to a point. If you simulate the card game (using a tool like this one) you'll find that the percentages are accurate up until the moment where Mulligan is dealt the Ace-Mackerel. Obviously, at this point, we cannot simulate any further. Especially since the Captain is dealt THREE cards soon after. At this point, the percentages are made up. It seems possible that rather than make up numbers from thin air, the creators choose to begin inserting significant figures that are actually clues. However, though we cannot simulate them exactly with online tools, the percentages continue to make a LOT of sense. The odds are only 4-5% off of if you were to simulate it using similar cards (like making Mackerel=to some arbitrary card and eliminating one of the Captain's 3,4, or 5 cards). It seems unlikely that the numbers would happen to coincide with the path the creators are willing us to draw. It also seems difficult to craft such a hunt to your liking while remaining within reasonable distance of reality to the odds of winning, and it still requires that the first 2-3 sets of percentages are actual calculated odds and not clues at all. Again, I think the creators would rather consistency.

The Cards:
Unquestionably, in my mind, the "meat and potatoes" of this episode. I believe the card values coincide with the buses encountered and ridden by the crew members in Episode 5.

MULLIGAN'S PATH
Starting Point:
Mulligan begins where we left him in Episode 3, traveling on the B/D southeast into Brooklyn. Though it was ambiguous in episode 3, I believe he was on the B train after watching this episode. We'll see why in a bit.

"Last Place Five Years in a Row":
Mulligan's caption reads that he has been in "last place, five years in a row". I always thought that lined up rather nice with this part of the subway map....



"Bear's Brown Cola, It's Tops!"
Brighton Beach Coney Island, It Stops!
Might be a stretch, but all in all it's an unnecessary yet possible confirmation to Mulligan's Location...the Brighton Beach stop at the END of the B train line.

"Ace and a Mackerel"
Mulligan's hole cards are an Ace and a Mackerel.
Under the theory that the cards represent buses, we refer to the Brooklyn Bus Map...



We can see that once getting off the train at the Brighton Beach station, Mulligan has two options: the 1 train (the Ace) and the 68 (the "Mackerel" if you will).

I'm still unsure which bus he actually boards. Possibly the 68 based on the fact that the flop card to him is a second Mackerel?

Just to prove a point...
If we have Mulligan take the 68 bus or the 1 bus west out of Brighton Beach, looking at the map above shows that he'll end up VERY shortly at MacDonald Ave. It's a rather incredible coincidence at this point in the game to notice that on the cover of the Episode 6 comic book, Mulligan is depicted holding a burger and a soda....



In a perfect world, this would connect Mulligan's ending location in Episode 5 with his starting position in Episode 6. However, applying the same set of rules to the other crew members do not yield such perfect results (yet, anyway). I encourage you to try applying the theory in hopes you'll catch something I missed.

THE CAPTAIN'S PATH:
Since I don't have an entire path mapped out, I'll instead handle this section by "plotting some dots" for us and leave the connecting path un-drawn until I can rationalize it. Here are some bits I feel are important...

"He cuts the losers arm off":
In the side-bet between Captain and Crothers, I have always felt that this symbolized the splitting of the two crew members onto their separate paths. They are both on the AC subway line up to this point. What I would LIKE to see is a point where a 20 or 23 bus (JQ) intersects an 11 or 56 bus (56) on the AC line. At this point, the Captain would continue on the subway while Crothers gets cut off or dropped off. However, I have yet to see this work out.

"Lady Luck and the Giant Turtle"
Well, there is no way that the Giant Turtle reference is not a clue. It's WAY too random and out of character. There are two giant turtle statues in Brooklyn. Unfortunate for us, they are on opposite damn sides of the borough. The smaller one (though still obviously huge) is located in Marine Park fighting a sculpture of a giant diamondback snake. The other is the 400 sq. ft. concrete tortoise located in McCarren Park. Both are visible from Google Maps satellite if you look closely.

From the "featured player" segment, the Captain seemingly hits the end of his line, (not sure if it's a subway or bus line), just after passing said giant turtle. Additionally, he is left "up to his collar in turds."

Now, ASSUMING that we somehow rationalized the captain getting off the A/C train and hopping onto the 43 bus and heading north... it takes him right past the McCarren tortoise - and I mean RIGHT past - and will soon after spit him out at the end of the line a block from the Newtown Wastewater Treatment Plant. This place is very big, and very smelly. In fact, if you want a good read, go take a look at some of the Yelp reviews on the plant. Not sure why there are any, or why it's currently rated at 5 stars, but it sounds like a smelly place.



PROs to this realization: This part makes a hell of a lot of sense.
CONs to this realization: Why'd the captain get on the 43 in the first place? Also, once we get back to the action after the featured player, what do we do with the rest of the episode regarding his 3-4-5 hand?

There are theories out there that the anachronous nature of the "featured player" indicates that it is meant to be taken out of time with the Episode and inserted somewhere else (possibly the "clue 42, 43, 44" bit in Episode 4) but I don't have the patience to count my clues, nor do I feel like humoring that theory just yet.

In any case, the Captain's path remains suspended in this state for me.

CROTHERS'S PATH:
I haven't given too much thought to this one outside of what I mentioned regarding his arm being cut off in the Captain's side bet (see above). I'm assuming that he ends the episode traveling on an 8, 10, 13 18, or 21 train (depending on how you interpret KCool.

TOM'S PATH:
Like Crothers, I like to think Tom will be ending on a 20, 22, or 24 train (depending on how you interpret JJ/QQ) in Queens. He would be getting off of either the D train near Mulligan, or the M train (if he were to transfer to the M train as I discussed in the end of episode 3).

IN CONCLUSION:
There are a lot of possibilities in this episode. Though Mulligan worked out rather perfectly, it's hard to apply the same reasoning to the other crew members and get equally impressive results, which makes me skeptical. It's certainly possible the buses aren't even involved at ALL in this episode, and we just stay on the subway. Or hell, maybe the mode of transportation is something completely different that no one has thought of yet. If someone finds a mode that seems to fit wonderfully, I am 100% open to it, as I can't seem to fit the buses perfectly yet. There are a lot of good leads, but it will take some more playing with the paths until the pieces of the puzzle fall into place a bit more nicely.

I encourage everyone to take what I've said above and play with it themselves - dividing and conquering the facts might make us some quicker discoveries Smile

As always, best of luck to all. I'll continue to update this thread with my episode 5 findings.


-Joe M.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:24 am
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joemanfro
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 		 one more thing
Oh, and before I forget....

There's always an awful lot of talk about the celebrity names = street names near Marine Park along Avenue U. While I've always regarded this as a wonderful discovery, I chalk this up to homage. As the ticker told us, homages are not clues!

That is all. Time for bed!

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:27 am
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ccl28
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Joined: 14 Dec 2010
Posts: 103

 		I've forgotten most of this, but I recall believing when the Captain bets and the total goes to 1000 he is on grand ave. I also believe that when Mulligan yells "Fish" he is on Calamus Ave.

Also, when Black Tom's turns "Jacks into Queens" he goes from Jackson Ave to Queens Blvd.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:29 am
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ccl28
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Joined: 14 Dec 2010
Posts: 103

 		BTW, a thought that I had a while back was that the Ave U reference can still be a clue even with the bus routes. Think about it. If we are meant to draw something, perhaps that section of Ave U is just some detail in the drawing. There aren't many things you can draw well w/o lifting the pen from the paper.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:47 am
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joemanfro
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 		hmmmm
You sir, may very well be onto something... Perhaps disconnects are not the worst thing in the world when we are meant to be forming a drawing.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 12:40 pm
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Whatever
Boot

Joined: 05 Mar 2012
Posts: 20

 		Celebrity names
I agree that the celebrity names are a clue. If it were an homage, all of the names matching streets there would have to match exactly with people to whom they wanted to pay homage.

Also, how is 68 representative of a mackerel? You lost me there. I'm definitely on board with your approach here. I'm stuck and mainly looking through what each character says across all of the episodes trying to find some lightning bolt clue. Lemme know if there's anything you want help with.

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:14 pm
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joemanfro
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 		Valid point... they do stretch the references a couple times. I'll also add that the avenue U stretch that crosses all the name streets goes RIGHT PAST the other giant turtle statue with the diamondback snake in Marine Park.... This is another thing that has always haunted me lol but once again, I can't find any way to rationalize any of the crew members in particular going past it.

Maybe it's universal?

PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:59 pm
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Tharol
I Have 100 Cats and Smell of Wee

Joined: 02 Oct 2011
Posts: 4805
Location: Muncie, Indiana

 		Think clues bit strech lists.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 8:15 pm
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TheHunter
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Joined: 10 May 2011
Posts: 23

 		*Looks up at Tharol's post*


...does ANYONE understand him, or is there something glaring I've missed in speaking like Yoda?

Either way, Joe - just wanted to let you know that I believe you were right - I think you mentioned somewhere that the buses may loop back, and I now have them crossing back into Manhattan at the end of 6. I'm not 100% on this factor, but it's looking likely - I'll have to double-check my topographies in relation to a couple landmarks but I wanted to drop that in your lap no less.

I'll post in corroboration when I'm confident about what I'm looking at.

PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 7:31 pm
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Tharol
I Have 100 Cats and Smell of Wee

Joined: 02 Oct 2011
Posts: 4805
Location: Muncie, Indiana

 		Concur the hunter there smart.

PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:09 pm
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joemanfro
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 		 Great input!
Let me continue this thread by first saying I'm really enjoying everyone's feedback on this one and it's great to hear that there are a decent number of people out there who are thinking very similar things!

I can't wait to hear more from some of you who might be able to actually produce paths through the end of this episode so we can discuss it.

While I haven't made any groundbreaking progress on this episode yet (I've begun looking at episode 6 a bit more - stay tuned for that), I have made a couple interesting (maybe significant?) discoveries:

1) "I hates me cards": the captain is depicted in the beginning of the episode holding two QUEENS while he states such. Does this mean he and Crothers begin already IN queens on the blue line? (he hates what he's been dealt) OR he is not yet in queens (because he hates it). Personally I kind of like the first option because I believe it offers more insight and teaches us something new rather than simply leaving us no better off than what we knew at the end of ep 3

2) "We're 4 players to the flop and it's QUEENS king six": no matter how many times I listened to this line over and over I continue to hear queenS (plural). An I cracking up? Listen closely and lets know what your take is on this. Personally I can't think of how this could be used if it is in fact a clue and not a hiccup in the audio, but it continues to bother me.

3) "Favorite Tom Jones song: Delilah": this never occurred to me, but maybe this is a quick confirmation that Tom was on the D train as we speculated at the end of episode 3. It would mean he never transferred to Mario's M train (which is fine by me), but it WOULD put him further from queens for the JJ>QQ trade if the queens in fact meant 'queens' and not the 20/24 bus. Something to think about, at least.

4) The Captain and Mulligan in the beginning of the episode are doing something weird. They seem to be conjoined. It's pretty easy to chalk this up as one-man puppetry perhaps, but they're immediately disjoined in the following scene. There's also what looks like some strange "tugging" motion by the captain here as if he is trying to pull away from mulligan, but none of it is soooo obvious that I'm convinced it's intentional yet...if I could make an animated GIF and slow it down it might help illustrate my point. Anyone else noticing anything funny here?

Stay tuned for my "Episode 6 stuff" thread, which will be even MORE vague, but which will continue to plot important moments on our map as we attempt to draw connections among them. There's some pretty great stuff that doesn't require knowledge of the prior paths worth investigating.

Good luck to all!
Joe M

PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:57 am
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joemanfro
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 		 weird
Oh, and that one dude is definitely Yoda.

PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:02 am
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captain12fingers
Decorated

Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 209

 		Re: Great input!
joemanfro wrote:
Let me continue this thread by first saying I'm really enjoying everyone's feedback on this one and it's great to hear that there are a decent number of people out there who are thinking very similar things!

I can't wait to hear more from some of you who might be able to actually produce paths through the end of this episode so we can discuss it.

While I haven't made any groundbreaking progress on this episode yet (I've begun looking at episode 6 a bit more - stay tuned for that), I have made a couple interesting (maybe significant?) discoveries:

1) "I hates me cards": the captain is depicted in the beginning of the episode holding two QUEENS while he states such. Does this mean he and Crothers begin already IN queens on the blue line? (he hates what he's been dealt) OR he is not yet in queens (because he hates it). Personally I kind of like the first option because I believe it offers more insight and teaches us something new rather than simply leaving us no better off than what we knew at the end of ep 3

2) "We're 4 players to the flop and it's QUEENS king six": no matter how many times I listened to this line over and over I continue to hear queenS (plural). An I cracking up? Listen closely and lets know what your take is on this. Personally I can't think of how this could be used if it is in fact a clue and not a hiccup in the audio, but it continues to bother me.

3) "Favorite Tom Jones song: Delilah": this never occurred to me, but maybe this is a quick confirmation that Tom was on the D train as we speculated at the end of episode 3. It would mean he never transferred to Mario's M train (which is fine by me), but it WOULD put him further from queens for the JJ>QQ trade if the queens in fact meant 'queens' and not the 20/24 bus. Something to think about, at least.

4) The Captain and Mulligan in the beginning of the episode are doing something weird. They seem to be conjoined. It's pretty easy to chalk this up as one-man puppetry perhaps, but they're immediately disjoined in the following scene. There's also what looks like some strange "tugging" motion by the captain here as if he is trying to pull away from mulligan, but none of it is soooo obvious that I'm convinced it's intentional yet...if I could make an animated GIF and slow it down it might help illustrate my point. Anyone else noticing anything funny here?

Stay tuned for my "Episode 6 stuff" thread, which will be even MORE vague, but which will continue to plot important moments on our map as we attempt to draw connections among them. There's some pretty great stuff that doesn't require knowledge of the prior paths worth investigating.

Good luck to all!
Joe M


2) Yes, He says Queens.
4) Yes, someone else mentioned the Captain & Mulligan togetherness some where in the massive thread.

PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:13 pm
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Shaunreen
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 		Sand
Sand
Have not posted in a while but I remember something about if the puppets looked down it would give it all away. I think the treasure is buried in sand. I have been following since Day 1 and I keep trying to bend the clues to fit my ideas (not a good path). But I live in Rockaway and see many of the lines crossing my neighborhood.
My biggest clue...when at the end of the card game tourney the table turns towards Queens. Many people think that Rockaway is part of Brooklyn but it is not. Rockaway was also cited for being part of a treasure hunt in the Hardy Boys adventures........just saying.......

PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:30 pm
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joemanfro
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 		Shaunreen - that's some pretty neat info. Something to think about - especially the turning towards Queens.

For those of you who may be lurking in limbo, I've turned my attention (briefly) to a fresh hunt to clear the mind and perhaps get some new ideas regarding the pirate treasure for when I return.

For anyone interested in doing the same, I HIGHLY recommend www.greathunt.com "The Quest for the Golden Eagle" - a $1 million treasure hunt in support of breast cancer research and prevention. Only the first of 13 treasures have been claimed, and additional "hint-type" clues are released weekly on Facebook to nudge players along.

A lot more heavy on the ciphers, but fun nonetheless. I shall make my return to the pirates in short order.

PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:50 am
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