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 Forum index » Chaotic Fiction » Marble Hornets
[VIDEO] Entry #82
Moderators: Giskard, JKatkina, Zarggg
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Lytrigian
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Joined: 01 Oct 2011
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Wondertje wrote:
Spoiler (Rollover to View):
it would be good to know though that Occam's Razor doesn't imply that it is the automatic truth, nor is it even applicable at all times. That's pretty much the first law of using Occam's Razor, it will help us reach the most simply solution, but by no means can it be used to deduct the true one.

That's true, but what it DOES do is help us spot the more likely solution. Not the guaranteed solution, the more likely one. The problem with the theory under discussion is that there's nothing in particular to suggest the Operator is even capable of it. It's an assumption you have to add to make the theory work. Must better to assume nothing extra at all.

PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:34 am
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Wondertje
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Lytrigian wrote:
That's true, but what it DOES do is help us spot the more likely solution. Not the guaranteed solution, the more likely one. The problem with the theory under discussion is that there's nothing in particular to suggest the Operator is even capable of it. It's an assumption you have to add to make the theory work. Must better to assume nothing extra at all.


The only thing that Occam's Razor tells us is which answer is the simplest. Whether this actually is the most likely or not isn't related to Occam's Razor. It's actually quite ironic because researchers that use Occam's Razor (when not correctly used) are quite often shot down on the fact that they have made an assumption about how the simplest answer also equals the most probable - which very often isn't true. Don't get me wrong, Occam's Razor is applicable in many cases, but that's more a matter of correlation rather than causation.

The correct way to use Occam's Razor is not as an argument for an actual fact - but merely as an argument for a method and how and/or why you think like you do. For Occam's Razor to apply, the two hypothesis that are tested against each other are supposed to have gone through the exact same amount of scrutiny by the general public - and when you're left with two hypothesis that are equally based on facts in theory - only then can you apply Occam's Razor as a method to choose one or the other, not as a method to prove one over the other.

Again, I mean no offence to anyone - all of this just really grinds my gears a bit.

PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:16 am
Last edited by Wondertje on Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:48 am; edited 1 time in total
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Sha Noran
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No need to apologize, and no need to spoiler that excellent reminder as to the exact nature of Occam's Razor, which is too commonly used incorrectly, leading to fallacies.

I just want to say that any time you start making assumptions of almost any kind, you've stepped out of fact territory and are instead in the theory zone. The theory zone is like the Twilight Zone; anything is possible in your construct, but that doesn't mean it is also possible within the framework of the reality you're discussing. To prove that requires evidence, facts, which are a notoriously sparse commodity in MH.

PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:33 am
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paladin181
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Sha Noran wrote:
No need to apologize, and no need to spoiler that excellent reminder as to the exact nature of Occam's Razor, which is too commonly used incorrectly, leading to fallacies.

I just want to say that any time you start making assumptions of almost any kind, you've stepped out of fact territory and are instead in the theory zone. The theory zone is like the Twilight Zone; anything is possible in your construct, but that doesn't mean it is also possible within the framework of the reality you're discussing. To prove that requires evidence, facts, which are a notoriously sparse commodity in MH.
People also should remember to build their theories on the facts and not manipulate facts to support their theories.

Otherwise those theories fall into the realm of speculation, and poor speculation at that since the facts as they exist don't support the idea.

PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:28 pm
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toclafane212
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I don't know if anyone has mentioned this yet, I haven't read all the thread. But the objects behind the hut looked like masks to me. It was just after Jay said "I'm seeing things I know can't be there". I think that there is a connection between Jay and his camera. Perhaps, and I know this is a long shot, the operator isn't real. All the characters can control what their camera can see, and the ark is the thing that is controlling it. TTA is trying to make the characters know this by "breaking the ark". Just a theory

PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:36 pm
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Lytrigian
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paladin181 wrote:
People also should remember to build their theories on the facts and not manipulate facts to support their theories.

This is the meat of what I'm trying to say, whether it's a valid application of Occam's Razor or not.

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:01 am
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JAL13
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Lytrigian wrote:
paladin181 wrote:
People also should remember to build their theories on the facts and not manipulate facts to support their theories.

This is the meat of what I'm trying to say, whether it's a valid application of Occam's Razor or not.


Not manipulate facts to support their theories? Can we eliminate the 50-60% of theories on here then?

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:18 pm
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Wondertje
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JAL13 wrote:
Lytrigian wrote:
paladin181 wrote:
People also should remember to build their theories on the facts and not manipulate facts to support their theories.

This is the meat of what I'm trying to say, whether it's a valid application of Occam's Razor or not.


Not manipulate facts to support their theories? Can we eliminate the 50-60% of theories on here then?


Just curious - Which ones are you refering to and how did they manipulate the facts to suit the theory?

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:33 pm
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JAL13
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Wondertje wrote:
JAL13 wrote:
Lytrigian wrote:
paladin181 wrote:
People also should remember to build their theories on the facts and not manipulate facts to support their theories.

This is the meat of what I'm trying to say, whether it's a valid application of Occam's Razor or not.


Not manipulate facts to support their theories? Can we eliminate the 50-60% of theories on here then?


Just curious - Which ones are you refering to and how did they manipulate the facts to suit the theory?


How would you like me to present them to you Professor Wondertje? Would you like an outline of my presentation?

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:47 pm
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Wondertje
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Please do, and don't forget: for the highest grade you also need to be able to apply your work with real life examples, since applicability is what it's all about! Smile

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:09 pm
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Sha Noran
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Don't twist manipulating fact to fit a theory with using a theory to explain facts that don't make sense.

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 6:05 pm
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Marble Hornets
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Ok, so after rewatching all of seasons 2 and 3 today I'm pretty convinced that everyone involved with the operator has split memories. We've always assumed when they black out that they just lose their memories, but what if their "alternate personality" (such as Masky) has it's own set of retained memories from all the blackout experiences?

Alex has also shown two personalities: the sane one that genuinely wanted to help jay/not get jessica involved, and the pissy one that kills and sacrifices people. The latter has an interest in the tunnel. If this ends up being true, I bet there will be a twist that Alex killing Jay will be "sane" alex's doing, not crazy alex's.

If this is true, it could mean that the second personality retains the memories of the first personality, but not vice versa. Or, it could just mean that the second personality finds out about what the first experiences through found footage.

It could also mean that totheark could possibly be Alex's "sane" form. A lot of the videos could be interpreted as self-reflection realizing that his other personality is a monster. The only thing disproving this are unique shots of hoody.


I also theorized that some elements from the sickness (such as headaches) are caused by a lack of sleep. If their alternate personalities are awake during the blackout time, this would mean that people could be staying up for long periods of time without realizing it. That would cause headaches, along with the purple under the eyes we keep seeing. Also, the operator must emit some kind of gas that immediately attacks someone's respiratory system. This causes the coughing/collapse, the coughing up of blood, and the desire for water.

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:01 pm
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Wondertje
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Marble Hornets wrote:
It could also mean that totheark could possibly be Alex's "sane" form. A lot of the videos could be interpreted as self-reflection realizing that his other personality is a monster. The only thing disproving this are unique shots of hoody.


That could actually very well be, also I don't think that shots of Hoody disproves that TTA would be Alex in his sane state. If we assume that Hoody is Brian, he and Sane Alex might be working together. It would also explain the Alex/Hoody interaction we saw in a recent video, and why Hoody might've been smiling. Alex was then in his Insane form, and Hoody was just smirking at the fact that he knew all of these things that Insane Alex had no clue about - and he parhaps wasn't feeling very threathened/was just playing him a bit.

In anything, the theory is disproved by the fact that Masky is in some of the TTA uploads, because Hoody(Brian) and Sane Alex makes sense, but why would they collab with what can only be assumed as Insane Tim?

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:06 pm
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Marble Hornets
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because we can't assume that masky is actually insane, he might be perfectly rational. remember that he did appear to save jay in 52 and also tried to lead him through the tunnel, implying there is some thought process involved in his actions (whereas batshit alex's actions seem to be impulse)

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:28 pm
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Wondertje
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On second thought, you're right. The appearance of Masky's irrational behaviour when he first appeared in the series might have been because they were attempting to scare Jay off to start with.

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:32 pm
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