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 Forum index » Archive » Archive: The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!) » The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!): General/Updates
[OT] Candidate's dice-manipulation ability
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fyzle
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Joined: 10 Sep 2004
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 		[OT] Candidate's dice-manipulation ability
It has been mentioned before that Spartan candidates hed extraordinary luck with dice, coin flips etc.

I've been working on manipulating coin flips and spins for a little while and have found that it is indeed possible. I have also found that dice throws can be manipulated, but manipulation is obvious to the observer.

Kamal says his little sister had the dexterity to manipulate the dice. If she is manipulating the dice in the way I'm thinking, it would have been extremely obvious to Kamal that his sister was doing so.

[OT]
If coin flips can be manipulated - why does the NFL use a coin flip to start the game? Does the coin flipper take cash under the table to influence the flip?

Ok, scratch manipulating coin flips in the NFL. I've been trying it and the only method that I've found that works would seem kind of fishy to the observer.

PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:17 am
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Dan04
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 		Just a small aside . . . but a coin never flips with 50/50 odds, statisticaly speaking

PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:21 am
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fyzle
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 		Can anyone think of how someone would go around manipulating non-loaded dice?

The only way I can think of involves spinning the dice horizontally with the desired dot combination on top.

I know a few coin and card tricks, but no dice tricks.

PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:41 am
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porq
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Dan04 wrote:
Just a small aside . . . but a coin never flips with 50/50 odds, statisticaly speaking


Statistically speaking, odds are always 50/50. It's just that you have to do this about 100 times before you start to notice that it is even. Do it a million times and it might be even more accurate, with perhaps 444,444 Heads and 666,666 tails.

Realisticly, you can never rely on it to always be heads then tails then heads then tails. The 50/50 number refers to the fact that in an infinite number of flips, it will always be half and half. That' pretty much what all statistics say.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:36 am
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fyzle
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porq wrote:
Dan04 wrote:
Just a small aside . . . but a coin never flips with 50/50 odds, statisticaly speaking


Statistically speaking, odds are always 50/50. It's just that you have to do this about 100 times before you start to notice that it is even. Do it a million times and it might be even more accurate, with perhaps 444,444 Heads and 666,666 tails.

Realisticly, you can never rely on it to always be heads then tails then heads then tails. The 50/50 number refers to the fact that in an infinite number of flips, it will always be half and half. That' pretty much what all statistics say.


In my flip prediction trick, I can force the outcome to be head-tails-head-tails etc. But if someone watched my trick for more than one coin toss, they would probably figure it out.

Anyways, I'm now looking into another way of manipulating fair dice, but I can't find anything on Google. I might stop by the library tomorrow to look up some dice manipulation books. (I've read a few card and coin books, but I've never seen a dice book before...)

PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:19 am
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Nightmare Tony
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 		Scarne on Dice by John Scarne
Scarne's complete book of gambling by John Scarne


That is where you will learn the fallacy of the maturation of odds discussed previously....
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:54 am
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chaotic_mind
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porq wrote:
Statistically speaking, odds are always 50/50. It's just that you have to do this about 100 times before you start to notice that it is even. Do it a million times and it might be even more accurate, with perhaps 444,444 Heads and 666,666 tails.

Realisticly, you can never rely on it to always be heads then tails then heads then tails. The 50/50 number refers to the fact that in an infinite number of flips, it will always be half and half. That' pretty much what all statistics say.


No, I don't think that what he meant. See, only a perfectly weighted coin, with no initial preference, and the limited effects of, say, air currents, would produce 50/50 results.

Mostly, though, stuff like this isn't enough to really distort the results. What most people hope, whether they realize it or not, is that the chaotic nature of the environment around the coin will make a random process. I.E. in one specific situatution it might be unfair, cause the coin might have a subtle, unnoticed deformation, that causes heads to come up .5% more of the time. On the other hand, these local inconsistance hoepfully smooth out over the entire system.

Anyway, just a little bit to think of,

Luke P.

PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:29 pm
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Platonix
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chaotic_mind wrote:
porq wrote:
Statistically speaking, odds are always 50/50. It's just that you have to do this about 100 times before you start to notice that it is even. Do it a million times and it might be even more accurate, with perhaps 444,444 Heads and 666,666 tails.

Realisticly, you can never rely on it to always be heads then tails then heads then tails. The 50/50 number refers to the fact that in an infinite number of flips, it will always be half and half. That' pretty much what all statistics say.


No, I don't think that what he meant. See, only a perfectly weighted coin, with no initial preference, and the limited effects of, say, air currents, would produce 50/50 results.

Mostly, though, stuff like this isn't enough to really distort the results. What most people hope, whether they realize it or not, is that the chaotic nature of the environment around the coin will make a random process. I.E. in one specific situatution it might be unfair, cause the coin might have a subtle, unnoticed deformation, that causes heads to come up .5% more of the time. On the other hand, these local inconsistance hoepfully smooth out over the entire system.

Anyway, just a little bit to think of,

Luke P.


Actually, the truth is, a perfectly weighted coin isn't perfectly weighted. Due to the different designs on each side (president's head on Heads, monument on Tails) no coin, even if perfectly standard, has truly 50/50 odds. I think the chances are slightly in favor of Heads.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 12, 2004 6:51 pm
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fyzle
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 		Who cares? I can make a coin flip come out in my favor pretty much every time... as long as I am the one catching the coin.

But, how does someone manipulate dice? All you can do is throw the dice, and you can't really be sure how the dice react to the impact surface.

PostPosted: Sun Sep 12, 2004 9:55 pm
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Tar Ecthelion
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 		How does someone jump 3 stories and not hurt themselves, how would you control your heart rate and the dilation of your eyes to an extent that you can fake a PQI...

...the point of my question is that we are dealing with people who are clearly much more in control then any of us can hope to be. It doesn't really matter weather you or I can do it. They can do it. Jan with out thinking is walking around the "moons" table and sinking 2 and 3 balls a stroke. That's possible for us to do but not at that speed or that effortlessly.

I realize that my example of Jan is going to be flamed a bit by those who will say we're talking about Kamals sister... but they are both unusually smart to the point there are people on this board who have suggested they are the same person (not my belief). To compare them isn't that far off I assure you. In fact I expect Bungie/M$ is expecting us to put that much together.

-Tar

Note: You can manipulate a 6 sided die's out come. You only have to make sure that the side you want is on one of the 4 sides you will role it down. With some practice you can make your odds on a 6 sided die 1 in 4 against the "Statistics". But let's not argue the point please.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:43 pm
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fyzle
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Tar Ecthelion wrote:
How does someone jump 3 stories and not hurt themselves, how would you control your heart rate and the dilation of your eyes to an extent that you can fake a PQI...

...the point of my question is that we are dealing with people who are clearly much more in control then any of us can hope to be. It doesn't really matter weather you or I can do it. They can do it. Jan with out thinking is walking around the "moons" table and sinking 2 and 3 balls a stroke. That's possible for us to do but not at that speed or that effortlessly.

I realize that my example of Jan is going to be flamed a bit by those who will say we're talking about Kamals sister... but they are both unusually smart to the point there are people on this board who have suggested they are the same person (not my belief). To compare them isn't that far off I assure you. In fact I expect Bungie/M$ is expecting us to put that much together.

-Tar

Note: You can manipulate a 6 sided die's out come. You only have to make sure that the side you want is on one of the 4 sides you will role it down. With some practice you can make your odds on a 6 sided die 1 in 4 against the "Statistics". But let's not argue the point please.


F. F. Sweeney, of Pittsburg was in the room with Wiles and young Wren and escaped in a remarkable manner by jumping from the third story, without injury.

http://www.bchistory.org/beavercounty/BeaverCountyTopical/Disasters/MerillHotelfireMSP79.html

So, jumping from the third story isn't unheard of.

In a 1994 controlled study of healthy female volunteers by Dr. F. J. Schell at the University of Würzburg in Germany, one group of women practiced yoga, and a control group sat and read. There was significant improvement among the yoga group in psychological parameters, such as a higher score in life satisfaction, with a decline in excitability, aggressiveness, and psychosomatic complaints. Heart rate fell during the reading activity in the control group, but rose at follow-up. Among the yoga practitioners, heart rate remained low.

http://www.healthyroads.com/mylibrary/data/pelletier/chapter10/p_yoga.asp

Maybe Jan knows yoga.

About the dice:
So that's how you do it. I will have to try that.

PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:08 pm
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HitsHerMark
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fyzle wrote:
Who cares? I can make a coin flip come out in my favor pretty much every time... as long as I am the one catching the coin.

But, how does someone manipulate dice? All you can do is throw the dice, and you can't really be sure how the dice react to the impact surface.


It depends on how, or if, the thrower is required to throw the dice.

If no special requirements are given, you can start the dice in a certain position in your hand and roll/drop the softly, or from a short distance, to increase your chances of getting a desired result.

That's why, in craps, the thrower is required to make the dice hit a far wall, to avoid such a thing.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:38 pm
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