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Known Commodities
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SuperJerms
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Known Commodities

Ok, so I have been into a couple of ARG's now, and I am noticing an increase in the number of games running at once. In the short amount of time I've been interested in ARG's I have noticed a couple of ARG's died partway through execution, others completed but were fairly brief, some are independent in every sense of the word and others have huge corporate sponsors.

I have been playing Sable & Shuck for a couple of months, and while there have been some impressive production values in certain places, the PM's have gone for a month with *no* updates whatsoever (and not because we have been missing a puzzle...just nothing). We now are at the point where we don't know if the game was (hastily, poorly) ended or if we are to wait for another month.

There has been much talk of anticipation about project syzygy, many hopefuls that 4ourty2wo & co. are in pre-production, and I have heard the words, "Hanging around waiting for the next big game," many times since the end of the 'Bees.

It's gotten me thinking about a potential issue for the spreading of the ARG form. When I want to spend $9 at ye movie theatre, I base my decision on known commodities: who is the director, main actor/actress, writer, production studio, what reviews has it received, or what did the preview look like? When I want to see a play, again I have reviews, stars, directors or locations as my bread and butter. Similar systems exist for music, literature, or games, but not ARGs.

Now we have Lenny's Xanga, which is showing some similarities to ILB (though it's hard to tell if these are due to serendipity, projection, or copycatting). Ask just about anyone in the community if they would play another game by 4ourty2wo, and 95% of us wouldn't answer because we'd be too busy figuring out ways to black out our calanders for the next five months. Likewise, plenty of us would be ready to maim anyone who would try to piggyback off of such an excellent game. Even if 4ourty2wo were behind an ARG, we wouldn't know it until the very end. So here's mah question:

How do PM's let players know that they are offering a well-done game?


Just to cut down on the obvious, I know that the rabbithole is a fine place to start. Still, anyone who started ILB without knowing about the honeybears or I, Robot trailer would have been unimpressed by Dana's website. Production values could be misleading too, as a person may have help for the rabbit hole but not the actual ARG, a corporate ARG might get its funding cut (I am assuming that's what happened with S+S until I get better information), or a PM team could dissolve midway through on an indie project.

OK. Thoughts?
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 12:55 am
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Diandra
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Re: Known Commodities

SuperJerms wrote:
When I want to see a play, again I have reviews, stars, directors or locations as my bread and butter. Similar systems exist for music, literature, or games, but not ARGs.

That's not necessarily true. Some games use meta sites to introduce themselves to the community. Chasing the Wish, for example, used such a site before the game went live. Soon-to-go-live Orbital Colony has one up, too, and it has a trailer.

Going back to CTW for a moment...the PM who wrote that story had produced other games previously and had a following of ARG players, yet he opted to do a stealth launch (no meta site) for his next game, Urban Hunt. He risked losing some of those players by not informing them of his new venture, but he was willing to do that for the sake of the reality he created.

However, just as you can go see movies with big-name stars or directors and dislike the films, you can also see films with no-name talent and love the movies. I've hated some critically-acclaimed productions and loved some underrated indie flicks. The thing is, you don't know for certain until you've seen them personally.

With most ARGs playing out in real time, it's often difficult to find out if a particular one is for you without investing a significant chunk of time deciding. The advantage ARGs have over, say, theatre tickets is that most don't require any up-front (player) financial investment to find out.

Unfortunately, some games fold before completion. It's happened to corporate ventures as well as grass-roots campaigns. There's no way to predict it. It's the risk players take. But without risk, there's no reward. (I admit to being a bit gun-shy lately and not immediately getting fully immersed. I prefer to lurk for a bit at the start, but that's simply because I just don't have the time to invest at the moment.)

For me, the best promotion (for all media & products) is via word-of-mouth. If players are creating a buzz about a new game, I'm more apt to become increasingly involved as a player. I also rarely see a movie the first week it comes out. Despite what the critics say, I'd rather wait until a few of my friends tell me about it first.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 2:00 am
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GuyP
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The more you manage to persuade players it's going to be awesome, the better it's likely to become, because there'll be more players and more of a buzz. Part of the reason that certain games like The Beast were so successful was the fact they evidently had strong corporate backing, hence were likely to be good, so everyone piled in to play. A good old self-fullfilling prophecy can go a long way.

I agree that a rabbit hole can be one of the best parts. If you make the initial batch of sites big, impressive and intricate, it's definitely reassuring and exciting to would-be players. Plus much, much better than:

a) mysteriously posting the trailhead on UF
b) having KOOKY, WEIRD i.m conversations with people

I feel with S&S it's been umming-and-aahing all along, and I'm not even sure it was originally intended to be an ARG until we came along and they thought it seemed like 'quite a good idea' but ultimately the Big Corporation element has just meant they've lacked agility, which is an awful shame as some of their ideas have been really excellent. I feel bad when people moan about it because I want them to learn their lessons and come back and do another, better one!

Post-mortem? Death by Committee.

One way to offer that assurance that a project is going to live up to expectations is by creating a sense that it's planned out, even if the players don't have a clue. Take a thriller novel, they often start with disparate storylines but are all woven together in the end. In a way, the less sense it makes at the beginning, the more I feel it's likely that the PM's have put a lot of thought into how it will all make sense by the end.

Or riff off the 0/777 bar from ILB - that was a simple, clear (although not tremendously imaginative) way of showing that there was plenty more to come. 777 lots of 'more', in fact.

Basically I'm trying to get a sense of who's behind the game: is it original? does it scale? (i.e: if there's much interaction this obviously isn't intended for a bit audience) is there sufficient quality i might associate with professional work? does the rabbithole suggest there's money behind it? Etc etc. Diandra's right, though: there's no guarantees. Production values could be misleading, yeah, or the meta-site could be overhyping it, or it could be big pretending to be small, or small pretending to big, or or or... don't worry so much!

PostPosted: Tue Feb 08, 2005 9:18 am
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MageSteff
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Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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Re: Known Commodities

SuperJerms wrote:
Ok, so I have been into a couple of ARG's now, and I am noticing an increase in the number of games running at once. In the short amount of time I've been interested in ARG's I have noticed a couple of ARG's died partway through execution, others completed but were fairly brief, some are independent in every sense of the word and others have huge corporate sponsors.


Yep those are the breaks. Sometimes pressures outside the game causes the PMs to not be able to continue to devote time to a game, and sometimes players lives outside the game can get in the way.

Quote:
When I want to spend $9 at ye movie theatre, I base my decision on known commodities: who is the director, main actor/actress, writer, production studio, what reviews has it received, or what did the preview look like? When I want to see a play, again I have reviews, stars, directors or locations as my bread and butter. Similar systems exist for music, literature, or games, but not ARGs.


The reason behind that is the R(eality) in ARG - If you are in a car accident (for example) do you care if it is a well known director hitting you, or some schmuck in a taxi? Would it have the same impact?

The correct answer to that question is: You can't plan an accident.

Likewise, knowing the PMs for every game might stop you from experiencing some very good offerings from people who have had a spotty record in the past. Not to mention a lot of players feel that they need for the PMs to be hidden in order to get the most enjoyment from the game.

So what does this mean for players? If you have time to take a look at each new game, great! But just as some people will like/won't like a particular movie/book/music regardless of what critics say the same is true for each game. What you like in a game (known PMs or particular PMs) may be what turns off someone else. There is room in this genre for all kinds.

Lots of people can say they were with this genre from the beginning (I was not) but in the past year or so it has gone from one game at a time with breaks in between, to numerous games running concurrently.

And I think that is just grand. Wink
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:57 pm
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Alzheimers
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As someone who tried to go the "independent in every sense of the word" route, let me tell you it's not as easy as you would think to draw an audience. In fact, in a community that's waiting on the edge of it's seats for TNBT to launch, drawing players can be neigh impossible. Here are some tips that I've learned from my personal experience:

First, you need to draw players in. Admittedly, I had no pre-launch advertising and dropped the rabbithole in probably the worst way possible (in chat). After a week of running though, I had built up a decent player base. Not all games are as fortunate -- the old maxim of "if you build it, they will come," doesn't hold for ARGs. "If you hype it, then build it well, they will come," is much more appropriate.

Second, you need to keep drawing players back in to your universe. Once you've established how your game will be run and how the puzzles are going to be integrated into the framework of the game, you'll lose some of those initial players. Hey, it happens -- not everyone's as open minded about what kind of games they'll play. Also, while there might be high initial interest in a new game, responsibilities and other real life inconveniences will naturally draw the less dedicated away. This is where I think the dread "Interaction" plays a large part. Keeping in touch with players fosters the notion that your characters are real and are depending on the player's actions to accomplish their mission/survive/etc. If players feel responsible for the outcome of events, then they're much more likely to not abandon their "friends in need." However, not all players want to interact with in-game characters so intimately. Providing sufficient means to interact with the world (read: lots of puzzles) is another important draw to keeping an audience.

Finally, you need to be consistent but not predictable when telling your story. Your plotline shouldn't deviate from the canon of the universe you've built; but if it becomes easy to predict, then players will post their spec and lose interest when they're right. Here's a little known secret: Players like to be wrong. The hell, you say? If players can predict B from A, they'll be able to see C and D and all the way down to Z, which means that for them the game is over. If they're expecting D and you give them Q, the unpredictability suddenly becomes fascinating. Just remember that you have to stay consistent with your universe!

Of course, there are also the "unsung" heroes of popular games: luck and timing. Launching a game in the midst of a hightly anticipated event will only bring you pain. Rumors of big projects launching did have an impact on our audience, but I can't blame the players for that. No matter how much it hurts, you can't take it personally when you see posts like "I don't want to get more involved...I'm saving myself for Game X." Sure, losing a prospective fan can be dissapointing, but if you let it affect the quality of your game you'll only lose more fans in the long run.
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:32 pm
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imbriModerator
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While I agree with much of what you have said, I strongly disagree with this...

Alzheimers wrote:
"If you hype it, then build it well, they will come," is much more appropriate.


I have launched two very successful online ARGs (Lockjaw and Mu/Metacortechs). Neither of which were hyped. There was no announcement or press surrounding Metacortechs and while Lockjaw was written up in Wired months before the launch, all it served to do was help a few players find the game. Those that stuck around did so not because of any hype but because they were intrigued by the product.

Not only do I believe that it's unnecessary to hype all projects, I do believe that it puts far greater pressure on the PMs and can be counter to their goals and take valuable time and energy away from development, depending on the way that it is done, of course.

That all said, I'm not opposed to pre-game hype. I do believe that it can and does work for some projects. I just don't feel that it is necessary to building an audience. I think that a well executed launch is more effective in terms of sticking with the curtain aspect and of building audience and audience anticipation. Following launch, there are ways that you can increase the viral nature of the experience as well as enabling new players to get involved.

- brooke

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:07 pm
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Alzheimers
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I didn't mean to imply that projects that don't get much hype haven't drawn big followings in the past, or can't attract players over time. As much as I wish I was around to experience Alternate Reality Gaming in it's early stages, I really can't compare my observations of the current state of the community with the environment that you launched in.

My comments are based on the impressions that I get from trends I have witnessed in the eight months I've been a member of this community, as well as experiences with setting up my own nickelodeon in the bazaar. These experiences tell me several things:

1) Projects announced early will draw more attention than unannounced launches, at least in the short term and likely overall. The more players involved at the beginning, the less likely you'll run into resistance from those who don't want to jump in midstream.

2) Rumors of and announcements of future projects with "selling points" such as a well known producer or a popular sponsor are likely to reduce the overall attention paid to secret projects launched quietly. I call this the "saving myself" phenomenon, and it implies that players can't or aren't willing to pay attention to more than one project at a time. While I can appreciate those that want to really get involved in a highly anticipated game, I can't help but feel that something's being lost by not experiencing the unknown adventure. But it's not up to me -- it's up to the individual, and this is seemingly the attitude of a good number of them.

3) Projects that involve a sponsored tie-in are more likely to draw the mainstream crowd, who will (expecting the same experience) will be less likely to join an independent project later on. The result is that these projects look "Bigger" while making the independent projects look "Smaller" in comparison. While I don't agree that the size of the following indicates the quality of the game, (I prefer to gauge a game based on player reaction) others may feel differently. Who wants to play a game noone else is playing?

The bottom line is, based on these three observations, I conclude that it is important, if not necessary, that a game build up some momentum before launch. While I'm sure all of us dream of finding that diamond in the rough--that tiny rabbithole that becomes a mainstream phenomenon--the bottom line is that without early interest most projects will not get the attention they deserve.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 10:44 am
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imbriModerator
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I suppose that you and I are coming at this from two very different angles. I don't believe in creating a game for the current unfiction crowd. Sure, it's great if they get involved in it, but I wouldn't actively market a game for them. It's not that I don't like or respect the current crowd, because I really do. It's not that I wouldn't want them to experience my works and that I wouldn't be hurt when some of my favorite players didn't get to enjoy the experience (which I was with Mu). It's just that I believe that there's far more that can be done when looking outside the existing crowd who, as you point out, often want things to fit a certain format and, as we've seen a number of times, are unwilling to move out of their 'arg comfort zone'. So, not only does this lead to formulaic experiences but it does little to expand the genre.

Back when we were creating MU, we did nothing to draw in the attention of those on UF & ARGN. In two of my other projects, there's been absolutely no involvement from the UF crowd. This is partially by design and partially because UF isn't the intended audience. This allows me, as a PM, to expand my experiences and attempt new and different things.

With MU, it would have been extremely easy to captivate the existing community and build hype & excitement. Not only were Space & Steve on the dev team, but the majority of the team had a strong PM reputation based on the work with Lockjaw. Sure, we could have increased our initial numbers and, perhaps, spread further on the internet. However, we chose a different approach and, in doing so, brought a number of new people into the community, some of whom have remained active and others who just check in on occasion. When all was said and done, those that were around UF/ARGN prior to the launch were just a blip of our total player base and a large number of them didn't even play, prefering to play Acheron and whatnot. So, by looking outside of the community, we didn't have to compete for attention with experiences that launched within the community. Sure, we had the "ease" of having the matrix as a backdrop, however I do believe that it is possible to get an audience outside of the community.

I don't begrudge those, like you, that look for an audience within the current community, but I do wish that more would challenge themselves to look beyond and to work on bringing new players into the fold. As an added bonus, they'll be seen as new, exciting, and innovative by those that have never seen an ARG before and they won't have to compete with any number of other games going on within the community or the jaded player types that are so fearful of getting involved in something that will implode.

- brooke

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:40 am
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Alzheimers
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Quote:
Sure, we had the "ease" of having the matrix as a backdrop, however I do believe that it is possible to get an audience outside of the community.


When dealing in a universe with a built-in audience, be they Halo 2 fans, AI fans, Matrix Fans, or Minority Report fans, there's a certain freedom from ARG convention allowed because they're not your target audience. There's already a community that's interested in anything related to their passion, and willing to dance for as long as you're willing to play the pipe.

Where does ARGdom end and FANdom begin? It's a blurred line, really. I'm guessing that this is why so many ARGs end up building off existing Canon. A preestablished fanbase with some crossver to a community that's eager for puzzles to solve and stories to become involved in must be extremely tempting, especially when you yourself are a fan of that Canon.

Perhaps this lack of a built-in audience is why many grassroots games seem to wilt after a short time. I used to think that if the game was good, the audience would find it. Now I think it might be more that, in general, we're tending to rely on preexisting opinions to reinforce interest rather than trying to foster interest from scratch.

Which is why the Hype machine is becoming so important in independent projects. If you don't have that preinstalled fan base, the crowds are not going to find you. You have to actively foster interest through previews and teasers and massive displays before launch.

Or you can settle for a small but devoted, loyal, and eager fanbase. Personally, I would rather have ten good players then a hundred mildly interested ones. The only downside is that it becomes a major blow if one or two of those fans, for whatever reason, are unable to continue the hunt. Those kinds of fans are hard to replace, and harder to get over.

After all, why do we do this, if not to perform for an audience?
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:24 pm
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imbriModerator
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Quote:
It's a blurred line, really. I'm guessing that this is why so many ARGs end up building off existing Canon. A preestablished fanbase with some crossver to a community that's eager for puzzles to solve and stories to become involved in must be extremely tempting, especially when you yourself are a fan of that Canon.


I think you have some facts wrong here. Most, the vast majority, do not build off existing Canon and, for those that did, only one (two, including Lenny's Xanga) did so as a non-commercial effort. Sure, Exocog wasn't commercial, but the goal was to run a short game to look at the possibility of commercial support. AI/The Beast and Halo/ILB were promotional materials contracted by the big guys, not because of preestablished fanbase but to gain (esp. in the case of AI) a fanbase and to promote the works.

Metacortechs was completely fanfiction and we did NOT do it because of the matrix community and fan base, we did it because it was a fun world to work with and to get some experience in working with a pre-existing Canon as well as get our name out there. As for if we were fans, I hope wolf doesn't kill me, but he hadn't even seen the movies and I'd only seen one of them (years prior) when we began development.

I don't think that the lack of built-in fan-base is why ARGs fail. I think that they fail for a number of reasons, some of them being motivation and not understanding just how time/life consuming running a game is.

Quote:
Which is why the Hype machine is becoming so important in independent projects. If you don't have that preinstalled fan base, the crowds are not going to find you. You have to actively foster interest through previews and teasers and massive displays before launch.

And yes, I think it's faulty to believe "if the game is good, the audience will find it". However, I don't think that you have to find the audience through hype. That might be the easiest way in the short term to do it, but I've spoken with several PMs of heavily hyped games that discussed the troubles that hype caused and that they would do it differently in the future. That leads me to believe that, in the long run, a lot of pregame hype (and the energy that it takes from development) is the difficult way to go. I still maintain that in most cases, it's preferable to have a strong well thought out launch as your hype machine.

Quote:
Or you can settle for a small but devoted, loyal, and eager fanbase.

I do not believe that it's an either or proposition. I just think that it takes a bit of creative thinking. And, if you are a PM, you better have a ton of that or you're in for a rough road.

- brooke

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:54 pm
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Liqidcrack
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My 2 hundtreths of 2 cents

Hype vs No Hype that is the question.

I'm not for or against hype. I think the project itself usually defines whether or not you new a meta (or what I like to call a Flagship) site.

Hype can kill you from the pressure of being successful on hyping the project along with (as imbri pointed out) you waste tons of effort and energy feeding the hype machine that should be used on developing the game. I speak from personal experience on that.

Hype also can help feed your energy levels during developement but it's more like a sugar rush. It doesn't last long and you end up doing more stuff to keep the hype up than you do building the game.

BUT... if you build your ARG first and then start the hype machine (which I don't think this order of execution has been done) then maybe you've just found a way to avoid the pitfalls and leverage bunches of people into your world.

No Hype is a confidence killer unless you somehow get involved with a group like those mystics who built MU or Lockjaw. If you're afraid you're building something only a dozen people will play, it can stomp your confidence in the project into the ground. Stealth release is fun to do but again it can make you nuts if you stealth something and no one picks up on it. And after all the work of avoiding the hype you have to try and stealth again but a little more blatantly plug your ARG.

No Hype is also much more aligned with a pure TINAG approach. How the hell can you say TINAG if you have a flagship site?

These are my opinions on which way to go. Please do not accept them as fact.

LC

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 1:17 pm
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Alzheimers
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imbri wrote:
Most, the vast majority, do not build off existing Canon...


I did not mean to insinuate every ARG released was based on an existing universe, but I don't think "Most" quantifies it well enough. I would guesstimate, quickly glancing over the Archives forum, at about 30% of non-sponsored ARGs (successful or not) that take place in Original universes; UH and P:G being the standouts of last year.

imbri wrote:
Metacortechs was completely fanfiction and we did NOT do it because of the matrix community and fan base, we did it because it was a fun world to work with and to get some experience in working with a pre-existing Canon as well as get our name out there.


I'm not debating your creative abilities or the legitmacy of your success. You probably worked very hard to achieve the results you got, and for that you deserve a lot of credit. What I'm saying is that success comes more frequently to those projects that tie in existing fan bases. Not to pick on poor Lenny, but all it took was one page with a vague reference to ILB to get the Halo fans back involved.

imbri wrote:
I don't think that the lack of built-in fan-base is why ARGs fail. I think that they fail for a number of reasons, some of them being motivation and not understanding just how time/life consuming running a game is.


Failure and lack of a fan base are two different issues. If the story follows through to it's logical conclusion, then I believe the game is a success regardless of how many players there are at the end. Popular projects (again, see Lenny) can fall victim to other circumstances just as easily as grassroots efforts, so I don't consider popularity a factor when trying to establish *why* it failed. Unless, you consider popularity to be the deciding factor between success and failure? (Yes, I know you answered that above. This is rhetorical.)

imbri wrote:
And yes, I think it's faulty to believe "if the game is good, the audience will find it". However, I don't think that you have to find the audience through hype.

To be honest with ourselves for a moment, let's not believe for a moment that our beloved gaming style is as popular as we would think. Despite the press and the attention that games like ILB, CTW, and MU have drawn, it's not as if Joe Q. is walking down the street looking for rabbitholes. The most reliable ways of building interest in a game is through targeted advertising. That is, either selling the ARG to the ARG fans, or selling the Story to the Genre fans. You need Mouths for word-of-mouth.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:10 pm
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Alzheimers
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Re: My 2 hundtreths of 2 cents

Liqidcrack wrote:
Hype vs No Hype that is the question.
I'm not for or against hype.


In a perfect world, every Rabbithole would be unannounced, and the game would draw as many players as it's quality merited. We could have as many games running simultaneously as the community could support, and we would always have more players joining in every day.

Unfortunately, this isn't a perfect world. Players need an incentive to get interested, and if a PM is expecting a big turnout on Launch day they better let as many people know about it as possible *before* that event.

Have there been examples to the contrary? I can't deny that there have been some outstanding Original games that didn't need one ounce of pre-game hype. But just *look* at the UF Games+Rumors forum:

Adrian Hon's Project Syzygy: Anounced February 27th, 2004
Orbital Colony: rabbithole'd on July 16th, 2004
Pandora Next: first posted September 29th, 2004
Nash Carey's Aware II: first posted October 8th, 2004

Some have missed launch dates and will be relaunched soon. Others are scheduled for "Sometime this summer". These are the Behemoths that a small project PMs like myself has to compete with. Just a *rumor* of one of them starting is enough to kill participation!

God forbid you launch within a month of one of these highly anticipated games? Or worse, an unannounced giant from 4orty2wo or Virtuquest.

This isn't to critique the PMs of those games above, or dissuade prospective PMs from launching anything this year. It's simply to illustrate the point that there are other factors involved when you're dealing with trying to attract players. Someone who's waited over a YEAR for Syzygy isn't going to hang around to watch even the best grassroots effort.

So, to conclude: is the only way to fight Hype, with more Hype? I really hope not. It's about impossible to compete on a level such as these.
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If at first you don't succeed, blame the cruel PM.

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:40 pm
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imbriModerator
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I'm late for school, so I don't have much time, but let me ask you to clarify a few things, if you would, so that I could respond in earnest when I return.


Alzheimers wrote:
imbri wrote:
Most, the vast majority, do not build off existing Canon...


I did not mean to insinuate every ARG released was based on an existing universe, but I don't think "Most" quantifies it well enough. I would guesstimate, quickly glancing over the Archives forum, at about 30% of non-sponsored ARGs (successful or not) that take place in Original universes; UH and P:G being the standouts of last year.


30%? I think you're off base, especially when only considering non-sponsored ARGs. What non-sponsored games, aside from Metacortechs, Lenny, and Exocog built on existing canon?
Lockjaw?
Plexata?
Change Agents?
Chasing the Wish?
Acheron?
Urban Hunt?

All notable and popular games, non of which built on existing canon. That's ignoring the dozens of others that didn't get the attention of those and none of which, off the top of my head, built off of a previous world.


Quote:
I'm not debating your creative abilities or the legitmacy of your success. You probably worked very hard to achieve the results you got, and for that you deserve a lot of credit. What I'm saying is that success comes more frequently to those projects that tie in existing fan bases. Not to pick on poor Lenny, but all it took was one page with a vague reference to ILB to get the Halo fans back involved.


And do you think Lenny, which imploded (last I checked), was a success? I'd agree that games with larger fanbases tend to make it through to conclusion more often, mainly because of the pressure to make it make it through (thinking grassroots).

Quote:

imbri wrote:
I don't think that the lack of built-in fan-base is why ARGs fail. I think that they fail for a number of reasons, some of them being motivation and not understanding just how time/life consuming running a game is.


Failure and lack of a fan base are two different issues. If the story follows through to it's logical conclusion, then I believe the game is a success regardless of how many players there are at the end. Popular projects (again, see Lenny) can fall victim to other circumstances just as easily as grassroots efforts, so I don't consider popularity a factor when trying to establish *why* it failed. Unless, you consider popularity to be the deciding factor between success and failure? (Yes, I know you answered that above. This is rhetorical.)


What do you believe my definition of success is? For the record, while popularity is one aspect of success, there are many many more and I would never say that popularity is *the* deciding factor between success and failure. I'd also consider some of the imploded games as highly successful, if not just for the lessons that they've taught and the innovations they tried. I was merely responding to your claim that most games "wilt" because of a lack of a fan base. I wasn't meaning to imply that wilting was failure, though most that wilt tend to, eventually, die without proper nurturing.

Quote:
To be honest with ourselves for a moment, let's not believe for a moment that our beloved gaming style is as popular as we would think. Despite the press and the attention that games like ILB, CTW, and MU have drawn, it's not as if Joe Q. is walking down the street looking for rabbitholes. The most reliable ways of building interest in a game is through targeted advertising. That is, either selling the ARG to the ARG fans, or selling the Story to the Genre fans. You need Mouths for word-of-mouth.


I never made *any* claim that Joe Q was looking for rabbit holes. That's one of the reasons that I believe that we need to extend beyond the UF crowd. Just because I said that I don't believe that all games need massive hype (trailers, meta sites, teasers, mini-games, whatever) to succeed does not mean that I think you can go to a Livejournal community on flowers and leave a stegged image of a tuilp. I said that with a well thought out launch that it was possible to move beyond the UF community. I still hold to that. Can you explain to me why targetted advertising must include hype?

- brooke

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 2:49 pm
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Alzheimers
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imbri wrote:
30%? I think you're off base, especially when only considering non-sponsored ARGs. What non-sponsored games, aside from Metacortechs, Lenny, and Exocog built on existing canon?

For every creative effort like Urban Hunt, there's a Slumberil, or a Noah Buddy. If my percentage is off, it's not because it's in the wrong ballpark.

imbri wrote:
All notable and popular games, non of which built on existing canon. That's ignoring the dozens of others that didn't get the attention of those and none of which, off the top of my head, built off of a previous world.

And again, I'll repeat: I'm not trying to insinuate a connection between Canon and Quality. Just the kind of attention it gets, and the differences in marketing such a game to fans.

imbri wrote:
And do you think Lenny, which imploded (last I checked), was a success? I'd agree that games with larger fanbases tend to make it through to conclusion more often, mainly because of the pressure to make it make it through (thinking grassroots).

Lenny had potential, but though it's demise wasn't the fault of the Lead PM it never had a chance to build on that potential. The surge of interest drove the PMs to try and salvage their game, but it was too far gone to be saved. A lesson to be learned, but not a satisfying conclusion for the players or anyone for that matter.

imbri wrote:
What do you believe my definition of success is? For the record, while popularity is one aspect of success, there are many many more and I would never say that popularity is *the* deciding factor between success and failure.

I took your comments to mean that player satisfaction was the key to success in the genre. Which, incidently, is the same way I look at it. I just fight the urge to try and count heads, and find success in those that did enjoy the experience.

imbri wrote:
I'd also consider some of the imploded games as highly successful, if not just for the lessons that they've taught and the innovations they tried.

I consider Tranquil Valley a success, because after it's implosion it was brought back to life and taken to a satisfying conclusion. Many lessons were taught, but the important thing was that the players got the best experience they could under the circumstances.
imbri wrote:
I was merely responding to your claim that most games "wilt" because of a lack of a fan base. I wasn't meaning to imply that wilting was failure, though most that wilt tend to, eventually, die without proper nurturing.

The "Wilting" in this case, refering to the event of a game losing momentum due to a lack of player-driven events, and eventually grinding to a halt when a) there's no updates to interest players and b) when there are no players to cause updates. It's acceleration vs friction, and friction has all the time in the world.

imbri wrote:

I never made *any* claim that Joe Q was looking for rabbit holes. That's one of the reasons that I believe that we need to extend beyond the UF crowd. Just because I said that I don't believe that all games need massive hype (trailers, meta sites, teasers, mini-games, whatever) to succeed does not mean that I think you can go to a Livejournal community on flowers and leave a stegged image of a tuilp. I said that with a well thought out launch that it was possible to move beyond the UF community. I still hold to that. Can you explain to me why targetted advertising must include hype?


I think this is the source of our misunderstanding. To me, all the pregame hoopla that happens before launch is hype. Meta sites, rumors, hints, launch date announcements, et cetra. If players know your game is on the horizon, it's hyped. If you just happen to be Adrian Hon, what else do you need beyond the name of a game and a fuzzy release schedule for the forums to explode? A postcard?

The point about "Targeted advertising" was only to whom the hype is focused at. A game about the Matrix, for example, with a single rabbithole on a matrix discussion board might just be enough to start a fire. A stegged image on a mesage board devoted to botany will not. Which is why, like it or not, most rabbit holes will originate where people look for them: Unfiction, and chat rooms associates with Alternate Reality Gaming. If you can extend interest beyond the community, more power to you. But Aunt Ethel, browsing the latest news in Tulips, isn't going to blink when that stegged picture loads up a little funny.

*edit:
I just wanted to add that, despite much argument to the contrary, I still hold to the belief that a game can succeed on a low-to-zero dollar budget. This kind of limitation severly restricts the kinds of "creative" launches most games wish for. ILB went for a cheap launch with the letters in the honeybears, but interest didn't really explode until the address appeared in the H2 Trailer. Syzygy got an ad put into a Firebox catalog, as well as in international magazines and the like. Creative, but not cheap.

So say my promotional budget is twenty-five dollars. How can that be used most effectively to attract the most attention? The answer is by targeting the market that I want to draw into the game; those people I know would be most likely to take notice when something strange comes their way. There are some "mass-advertising" options at such a budget level, such as Fark ads or the like, but that necessitates someone a) with an interest in ARGs, or open-minded enough to learn about it, b) noticing your rabbithole, c) taking an interest in following the rabbit hole, and d) spreading the news of your rabbit hole to their friends. And if it fails? Then you've wasted twenty-five dollars that could have been spent on another domain registration.

Being creative is a necessity when you're dealing with such restrictions. The difficulty quickly elevates when you don't have that built in audience either due to content or heritage.
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If at first you don't succeed, blame the cruel PM.

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 3:45 pm
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