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 Forum index » Archive » Archive: General » ARG: The Carer
The End - Post mortem..
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Phaedra
Lurker v2.0


Joined: 21 Sep 2004
Posts: 4033
Location: Here, obviously

Hmm.

I think part of the problem may have been something that was simultaneously (and paradoxically) both the PMs' responsibility and beyond their control:

Getting enough players.

I'm not a PM, but I've talked to a lot of successful grassroots PMs, and they've told me this is always a worry. The collective intelligence of a group as large as the Cloudmakers, the MetaUrchins, or the Beekeepers can solve anything thrown at it (provided it's not a flawed puzzle like a_pawn).

But there were, at my estimate, about 30 regular posters playing this game. Maybe 40. With another 10 or so that posted occasionally.

I'm not sure what the magic number of players is; the number at which a group of players becomes the sort of Borg-like, indefatigable, unshakable, unbeatable collective intelligence that blew away every puzzle designed for the Beast on the first day, but I'm pretty sure it's a much larger number than 40.

So, while PMs who can count on thousands of people playing their game have the luxury of designing puzzles that are as difficult as they can make them, PMs who have tens of players need to make sure that the puzzles are easy enough for their smaller player base to solve.

And, while I'm not a PM, I have designed a few puzzles, and I can attest that it's very hard to judge the difficulty of a puzzle. What seems obvious to you, as the puzzlemaker, may be something that a group of 40-some players will never notice or guess.

So, I think part of the problem here was the relationship of the puzzle difficulty to the size of the player base. I'm fairly sure that the Beekeepers (at the size and attention level they represented during ILB) would have solved any of these puzzles within an hour.

For us, though, that simply wasn't possible. And that's nothing to be ashamed of on our part -- we simply weren't big enough.

Maybe the PMs expected a lot more players; maybe they expected the puzzles to be easier for us than they turned out to be.

Either way, though, I'm surprised and a little annoyed that the game was apparently designed to end once we'd decided. It seems pretty anticlimactic. Perhaps there was a behind-the-scenes implosion.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:48 pm
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kholdstare
Boot


Joined: 16 Apr 2005
Posts: 27
Location: somewhere between heaven and hell

... wow. I never thought about player base being a problem, but I guess you may very well be right. What I want to know is how OurColony got a crap load of people to play, while a game as good as this hardly got anyone? Maybe it was just advertising.... It really is too bad it had to end this way... I've been following this one for a while, and it was pretty good. Let's hope it is a sign of good things to come. Very Happy
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:29 pm
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Phaedra
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Joined: 21 Sep 2004
Posts: 4033
Location: Here, obviously

kholdstare wrote:
... wow. I never thought about player base being a problem, but I guess you may very well be right. What I want to know is how OurColony got a crap load of people to play, while a game as good as this hardly got anyone?


How did OurColony get a crapload of players, you ask?

1) It was fairly obviously connected to the XBox. So it could count on the XBox contingent.

2) The ants, and the fact that it was clearly advertising for the XBox, made people wonder if there was an Ilovebees connection. So, at least at the beginning, it got the beekeeper contingent.

3) For that same reason, like Lenny's Xanga, another abortive piece of crap, got a lot of people who missed ILB but wished they had played. So it got the beekeeper wannabe contingent.

4) Micro$oft.

So, the numbers aren't all that difficult to figure out.

Also, and I can't remember if I alluded to this in my previous post, and I'm too lazy to open another window and check, but it appears to me that the PMs of TheCarer aimed their game squarely at Unfiction, without making much of an effort to attract new players.

As Imbri explained in one of the PM-training chats, this can backfire as far as player numbers. (Edited for easier readability and noise-to-signal ratio.)

#pmchat wrote:
<Denounced> so yer definitely right - you have to keep the new new ones in mind Smile
<imbri> well if you don't it's hard to have new players, and if you don't attract new players, you aren't going to have many players at all. because, let's say, the current "population" of unfiction is 1000, and of those 1000, 500 are playing the 'big games,' and another 200 are solelylurkers, waiting for the next 42 game, and 100 are pms/pms in training
<imbri> you've gotta assume that there are about 400 potential players to an average grassroots game and, right now, there are, what, 10-15 going on and you've gotta share 400 players. the most you will get (and i think this is generous) is 40-50 unless you look outside the current arg community
<imbri> how viable is a potential 40 player game... keep in mind that getting 10% out of lurking status is rough going. 40 player game = 4 posting players, tops. you have to think of your playes as an iceberg: 90% (or more) are underwater... they are just lurking there
<NightWing> Yeah... 90% of them would just sit there and lurk. In the iceburg.
<imbri> denounced, like most statistics... those were made up on the spot. but, with a bit of awareness. i mean, i've been observing for quite some time and i've had access to a few studies (though i question them as well)
<imbri> but without visible players it's hard to recruit new players


So, let's revise Imbri's numbers to reflect the current population of Unfiction, which is 7236. According to the memberlist, 4961 of these members have actually posted.

Rounding the numbers, that means that of roughly 7000 players, 2000 are lurkers. Imbri estimated 20% lurk, but this puts it closer to 30%.

She estimated half are here to play the "big games." Either they only appear during the big games, or they play one game like ILB or Our Colony or Art of the Heist and then vanish (and while I don't believe Our Colony was really an ARG, I include it here because it did bring players to Unfiction. Or, there are people like me who half-heartedly try to play some of the smaller games but never really get grabbed by them.

So, 3500 are here for big games, but a few of them could potentially be interested in a smaller game. Another 2000 are lurkers only.

At imbri's estimate (that is, 40% of the total membership is part of a potential audience for grassroots games), that leaves us with about 2800 potential players.

And those 2800 have to be shared between the currently-running games (assume 10-15 at a time).

That's 280 potential players for each game, if we assume a fairly even distribution (which, of course, doesn't happen in real life as some grassroots games are more attractive than others).

As imbri noted, getting more than 10% of the players out of lurking status is rough going.

So, that means about 28 visible players. (Which is reasonably close to my estimate that there were ~30 regular players here.)

There's an explanation for your numbers question.

This again highlights the importance, for grassroots PMs, of looking outside the established ARG community for players. Especially, I think, with the launch.

I mean, they don't really need to worry about the Unfiction populace finding their game -- if it's out there, we'll find it. But aiming the game solely at Unfiction limits the potential size of your player base. And less players means less ability to solve puzzles and figure out the plot.

Also, I maintain that the larger the group, the easier it is to predict behavior, which is also important for a PM.

Anyway, that's my theory and I'm stickin' to it. Smile
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:29 pm
Last edited by Phaedra on Fri Jul 28, 2006 5:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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SpaceBass
The BADministrator


Joined: 20 Sep 2002
Posts: 2701
Location: pellucidar

The lurker population is actually quite a bit larger, as most of those guys don't bother to register. I typically see about 3-5 times as many unique hosts visiting the site as there are registered users. However, the vast majority of those lurkers are quite unlikely to delurk unless they are particularly enchanted by something, so this point doesn't really affect what you're saying, I'm just adding a bit of trivia. Wink
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:50 pm
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SteveC
Unfettered


Joined: 05 May 2005
Posts: 381

Of course, the other solution is to design a game that people can lose Smile

I think it has to be quite short though, basically a gentle build up of evidence and information without anything REALLY progressing, followed by a second buildup to a climactic ending that ends well or badly depending on player interaction.

In our case we got that. There were 7 people captured throughout, Amanda was never safe even though she escaped, same with Derwent obviously, so basically we always had a "there are 7 captives in a house somewhere" situation.

We then got the CD which gave us quite a few other bits and bobs to work on, this was the final buildup. Obviously we failed on that as we didn't manage to contact #1 or another member to try and stop it.

We then chose not to choose. Not a bad decision I don't think, if we'd chosen to kill amanda, the ending would have to have been that he kept the other 5 anyway, if we'd chosen the 5, why let amanda live, she'd seen some of them etc.. I can't see how it could have ended differently other than winning. (though they do say they had the 4 endings, win, lose, save 5, save 1 I assume).

Anyway, when I rule the world, ARGs will be more mass media. Wink

PostPosted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 11:06 am
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JoeOE18
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Joined: 08 Apr 2005
Posts: 301
Location: UK

How irresponsibe of a game to end while I am in Las Vegas Rolling Eyes Razz
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 11:33 pm
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chippy
Entrenched


Joined: 19 Feb 2005
Posts: 789
Location: Leeds, UK

and me in new york too!

PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 4:21 pm
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