unforum

monkeytroll · Boot Joined: 23 Oct 2005 Posts: 33

#174 - Purple -Jaunty Paul

**Posted:** Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:30 pm

_________________
"I have not failed. I've just found ten thousand ways that don't work." Thomas Edison (unless he stole it from Tesla)

Atrophied

Um.. if you get it wrong, do you get killed by a sock-puppet?

Seriously though, the odds are still 50:50 no matter what anyone else tries to tell you.

Oh, and what are the chances of getting scans of these cards (and their backs) at 60dpi resolution?

**Posted:** Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:03 pm

_________________
"It will be happened; it shall be going to happening; it will be was an event that could will have been taken place in the future." -- Time travel, as explained by Arnold J. Rimmer

"The Future's bright, the Future's Cuboid" - Juxta

monkeytroll · Boot Joined: 23 Oct 2005 Posts: 33

Still having fun & games with my scanner I'm afraid. Hence I've only posted those cards that don't need the image to solve. Please bear with me, to be honest I'm not sure what I'm doing either which probably isn't helping.

**Posted:** Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:30 pm

_________________
"I have not failed. I've just found ten thousand ways that don't work." Thomas Edison (unless he stole it from Tesla)

European Chris

**Posted:** Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:36 pm

_________________
http://www.hayfestival.com/archive/2006/05/blasphemy-debate.aspx
The internet, giving the entire world a license to opine, since 1989.
http://littleatoms.com/

ZoomZoom · Boot Joined: 12 Nov 2004 Posts: 21 Location: Cambridge, UK

**Posted:** Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:38 pm

cassandra · Entrenched Joined: 25 Mar 2005 Posts: 831

didn't we play this one in Receda's Revenge? Razz

**Posted:** Thu Nov 24, 2005 7:48 pm

sixsidedsquare · Unfettered Joined: 24 Mar 2005 Posts: 409 Location: 60E

Yeah, and I knew those dang school kids had it wrong Very Happy

**Posted:** Thu Nov 24, 2005 9:05 pm

Kvasir · Boot Joined: 15 Oct 2005 Posts: 48

**Posted:** Sun Nov 27, 2005 11:07 am

EvilOverlord

It makes more sense if you think of it this way:

Instead of 3 doors, there are 1000. Only one door has a yacht behind it and the rest have goats. You pick Door 1. Jaunty shows that Doors 2 - 728 and Doors 730 - 1000 have goats behind them.

Would you stick with Door 1, or choose Door 729?

You only have a 1/1000 chance of getting it right on the first guess. In all the other 999/1000 cases, Jaunty will reveal all the doors except the one that the yacht is behind (and the one you chose, which has a goat). Thus, you have a 999/1000 chance of getting the yacht if you switch.

You can be sure that the show will go off the air soon - either from losing so much money from practically giving away yachts, or from lawsuits after you are trampled by 999 goats.

If there are only 3 doors, the situation is analogous, only not so obvious, and with worse odds (2/3).

**Posted:** Fri Dec 02, 2005 10:44 pm

doublecross

This does seem counter-intuitive, but if you actually try it with someone, you will see that it is right.

**Posted:** Sat Dec 03, 2005 6:58 am

_________________
xx

jojojojo

I wouldn't feel too bad if you originally thought the odds were 50:50.

The original problem was sent to a newspaper column, in 1990, called "Ask Marilyn" in an American Magazine called Parade. People sent in problems/puzzle to the column writer Marilyn vos Savant who, at the time, had the highest IQ recorded in the Guiness Book of records.

Marilyn gave the correct solution.

Many mathematicians disagreed with Marilyn, and many members of the public complained. 92% of letters she received said that she was wrong. and to quote one such remark:

**Posted:** Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:53 am

_________________
For the record I have one head!

Dickie911

Jojojo

all you have to do is write the text you want to hide in the text box.

**Posted:** Sat Dec 31, 2005 1:53 pm

wizzsteve2

can i get an answer to this plz ive tried 2 answers

**Posted:** Sun Mar 05, 2006 8:16 am

_________________
Love is the Red, The Rose, On you coffin door, WHats life like bleeding on the Floor?

Dragon_Hogg · Kilroy Joined: 08 Mar 2006 Posts: 2

solved

**Posted:** Wed Mar 08, 2006 6:13 pm

forensick

I think the biggest problem with this question is that it's

a) not made clear or
b) we just don't put it together

that the host is always going to show the other goat first.

He's not going to walk over and open the door with the car first (if you chose a goat). It's that logic that made the problem difficult for me.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still not a fan of the math behind it. I'd much rather accept 50/50 or even 66/50 before the "truth."

**Posted:** Fri Apr 28, 2006 2:19 pm