View topic - [UPDATE] Anna Heath 2nd May 2006

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Forum index » Archive » Archive: Perplex City » PXC: General/Updates

[UPDATE] Anna Heath 2nd May 2006 - Ceretin C6

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rlp6028
Veteran

Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 76
Location: Bryan, TX USA

Has anyone tried to manipulate the numbers at the bottom to decipher any kind of clue? Seems like a long shot, but where it shows the volume and edition info at the bottom right of the page, "e54137" is bolded in a way not consistent with the rest of the document.

Posted: Tue May 02, 2006 9:23 pm

Dranioth
Veteran

Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Posts: 92

Ashin wrote:

Has it been clarified anywhere how Ceretin is normally taken?

It seems odd to me that it would be consumed in liquid form, simply because it's hard to make measurements, it's messy, and you have to carry around a large package (you almost never see individual liquid doses).

But if it comes in pill form, then Cymablisty's coffee cup takes on a different meaning because he might not have even known he was taking anything.

As for this test, it would be easy for someone to swipe the C6 by simply not swallowing the pill. Everything looks right from the examiner's point of view, but then they walk out with the goods still in their mouth.

Ceretin is consumed in Pill form, as seen at:

Spoiler (Rollover to View):

http://www.cheapceretin.com/
http://www.cognivia.com/products/ceretin/

Posted: Tue May 02, 2006 9:49 pm

GasparLewis
Unfettered

Joined: 19 Nov 2005
Posts: 474
Location: vicinty of NYC

Let the kid who just had his AP Statistics exam look at this thing.

The report wrote:

...15 male, 15 female...
*the chart*
A single outlier in the study, HG
double-blind, % improvement over a placebo

What Bothered Me On A Cursory Go-Over
1: why no placebo line? How effective IS Ceretin, I ask you?
2: for a major study, 30 does not a large sample size make. What gives, Cognivia?
3: what do the black line ranges indicate: max/min, or a confidence interval?
4: A little more precision in the data wouldn't kill you Perplexian scientists, would it?

1: base line as placebo/control: I need to read more clearly
2: this one isn't as bad at first glance: 30 is small, but statistically powerful enough
3: graphing outliers, I'd say IQR and 1.5 each way, like an alt-display boxplot

But, otherwise, things look alright.

OK, so, I'm going to calculate at the 18 hour mark; watch me and tell me if anyone spots me doing something stupid for trying this at 10:30.

Assume IQR +/- 1.5 IQR = (32, 44)
4IQR = 12; IQR = 3
IQR = 1st to 3rd quartile; 50% of values
Assume Q1 36.5, M 38, Q3 39.5
.25 left side, .25 right side of mean 38
Assume outlier value = 26

That should be enough for someone less tired than me to whip up a fitting curve and figure out the probability of the outlier's value (or lower) showing up randomly using a normal cumulative distribution function (normalcdf[mu,sigma,low,high]; or, in this case, normalcdf[38,??,-1000,26.5]).

Honestly, figuring out the the standard deviation for the given curve shouldn't be too hard given what we have, at least for someone who knows what they're doing more than I do.

But, far as I can tell by eye: it's low. Very, very, low.
If it's anything below .05 or so, we have ourselves a statistical smoking gun.

ceretin.PNG
Description	Boy, I sure do use Paint a lot for PXC these days, huh?
Filesize	8.16KB
Viewed	430 Time(s)

Posted: Tue May 02, 2006 11:59 pm

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