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 Forum index » Diversions » Perplex City Puzzle Cards » PXC: Silver Puzzle Cards
[Puzzle] #243 Silver - Shuffled Part 2 (Read 1st Post!)
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kian
Boot

Joined: 16 Feb 2006
Posts: 24

ariock wrote:
Assuming that the shuffled algorithm is (mostly) sound, shouldn't it have the potential to put out ANY series of letters? And if it can output any series of letters, shouldn't we (theoretically) be able to find a deck order that will spell out pretty much anything we like?

Unfortunately, that seems to be a drawback of the GA approach. However, it looks like there is at least some amount of bias in the Solitaire algorithm, according to the Security Analysis links on Schneier's website.

I'm not sure whether this approach is hopeless or not. Maybe it's just my way of coping with the problem and actually feeling like I'm accomplishing something.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:40 pm
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Koblin
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Re: Genetic Algorithms and Deck Order.
Not enough entropy.

ariock wrote:
Assuming that the shuffled algorithm is (mostly) sound, shouldn't it have the potential to put out ANY series of letters? And if it can output any series of letters, shouldn't we (theoretically) be able to find a deck order that will spell out pretty much anything we like?


As the ciphertext is fixed, you could only do that if the message was a lot shorter:

There are 54! possible initial deck orderings.

Each character in the message has 26 possible values, and there are (at least) 100 characters. Thus there are (at least) 26^100 messages.

26^100 is a *lot* bigger than 54!. (2^470 versus 2^240ish). Thus, most possible messages have no key that would encipher them to the given ciphertext.

Exercise for the reader: Explain why this explanation is able to ignore the fact that the number of possible *understandable* messages it could be is less than 54!.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:27 am
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FranG
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Joined: 23 May 2006
Posts: 35

All possible messages

Hmmm.. Could it be that there are twice as many deck orders as messages, since there are two alphabets in the deck? The 5 of clubs (5) and the 5 of hearts (31) produce the same keystream letter, right? It looks like the number of possible keystreams would be the same as the number of messages, both because one keystream produces one message and because it's the same number of letters.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 12:42 pm
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ariock
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Joined: 11 Aug 2004
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Re: Genetic Algorithms and Deck Order.
Not enough entropy.

Koblin wrote:

26^100 is a *lot* bigger than 54!. (2^470 versus 2^240ish). Thus, most possible messages have no key that would encipher them to the given ciphertext.

Exercise for the reader: Explain why this explanation is able to ignore the fact that the number of possible *understandable* messages it could be is less than 54!.


Thank you for the clarification, Koblin. I should have done the math myself. I have been devoting enough time to this lately that it should have been obvious to me.

I am glad to hear GAs aren't in the realm of impossible for solving this. Actually, it sounds like the best method for solving at this point. What are the parameters of the GA? And how difficult is it to add parameters? I was thinking that there are over 2^94 likely starting deck orders (assuming standard motor deck starting order and 1 to 20 letter key phrase).
_________________
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When the Apocalypse comes, it'll be in base64.


PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 12:58 pm
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James Siegesmund
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Joined: 02 Aug 2006
Posts: 26
Location: Denver, CO

Just throwing more stuff out there, hoping I can spark someone else into a solve. This whole thing is spec...

As was previously discussed with my "working backward" idea, the Jokers can never end a round of encryption on the bottom of the deck. This means that although there are 54! possible starting orders, there are less than that number of possible ending deck orders after a single round of encryption.

When working the other way (from encrypted deck order back to starting order), this makes Solitaire non-reversable -- if you're working backwards, and a joker should go on top, you don't know whether to put it on the top of the deck or on the bottom, because Solitaire treats those two positions as identical.

What I'm wondering is whether we can work with the fact that Garnet DID solve it. If he never had a keyword, he was able to work backwards from some ending order, through 100+ itterations, to get the starting order. How many starting orders, put through 100 rounds of encrytion, NEVER hit that joker on top/bottom state that makes Solitaire unreversable? Any math lovers out there that could answer this?

To put it another way, an encryption method is non-reversable if some critical piece of information is lost during encryption and can't be recovered (e.g. I take a message and use a random number generator to ROT each letter 0-25. The encryption is unreversable unless you know what random numbers I used -- that's why a one-time pad cypher's only weakness is that someone could learn the key). Solitaire loses information via the looped deck, bottom-card-is-also-on-top-card thing; we know this because 54! starting orders go to less than 54! round two orders, so some 2 starting orders must produce identical round two orders. Those two starting orders have lost info -- you can't look at the round two order and know which starting order it came from.

But what if this one time, somebody used a starting deck and a message order that didn't lose any info, allowing Garnet to reverse it from the deck order he got (but didn't share with us). It is possible that for such a long message, there are a severely limited (maybe even only 1 -- though also maybe none) number of deck orders that meet that criteria. If we could find that limited number, maybe solving this would be just a matter of using the right one of those.

The basic idea: 100% of the 54! starting orders are possible. But only some fraction of those (say 99.9%) are possible orders after a single round of encryption. As this continues round by round, the fractions multiply. 54! is a huge number, but it gets smaller as it is multiplied by fractions round after round. If there are "only" a billion possible deck orderings after 108 rounds, how many of those correspond to one, AND ONLY ONE starting order?

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:03 pm
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FranG
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Joined: 23 May 2006
Posts: 35

Deck orders/messages

OK, Guys, someone's going to have to break this down to much simpler terms. If I can't draw a picture or list something, I'm a little slow.

How can there be keystreams that are not possible to generate from some deck order?

I can see that the jokers could cause some problems, but it looks like that might cause a deck order to produce a duplicate keystream, resulting in even fewer possible messages.

The mind boggles. Help please.

EDIT: More important than explaining why, is there some way we can identify the keystreams that are possible? For instance, is it possible to generate more than 2 A's consecutively? If there are 54! deck orders and half the keystreams they generate are duplicates, does that reduce the number of possibles to something that could be generated and tried?

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:26 pm
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Koblin
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Deck orders/messages

FranG wrote:

EDIT: More important than explaining why, is there some way we can identify the keystreams that are possible? For instance, is it possible to generate more than 2 A's consecutively? If there are 54! deck orders and half the keystreams they generate are duplicates, does that reduce the number of possibles to something that could be generated and tried?


You can identify that a keystream is possible by finding a deck order that produces it.

54! is such a big number, that operations like halving it aren't going to make it feasible to enumerate the possibilities. (Some modern systems rely on the fact that even counting up to the square root of a value of that size is effectively impossible.)

ariock wrote:

I am glad to hear GAs aren't in the realm of impossible for solving this. Actually, it sounds like the best method for solving at this point.


I'm afraid all I showed was that given a plaintext, there isn't necessarily a corresponding deck order that would turn it into the ciphertext.

I wouldn't have thought GAs would be any use here: any evaluation function is going to have large numbers of local maxima, and the search space is so large that the probability of trying a region of the function for which the "real" answer represents a local maxima is (I would expect) going to be very very small.

I think the best method is trying to find the key used to initialise the deck. It's the main "weakness" of Solitaire, and the most recent Mind Candy email in this thread seems to hint that's the expected way to proceed.

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2006 4:37 am
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ariock
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Re: Deck orders/messages

[quote="Koblin"]
FranG wrote:

ariock wrote:

I am glad to hear GAs aren't in the realm of impossible for solving this. Actually, it sounds like the best method for solving at this point.


I'm afraid all I showed was that given a plaintext, there isn't necessarily a corresponding deck order that would turn it into the ciphertext.

I wouldn't have thought GAs would be any use here: any evaluation function is going to have large numbers of local maxima, and the search space is so large that the probability of trying a region of the function for which the "real" answer represents a local maxima is (I would expect) going to be very very small.

I think the best method is trying to find the key used to initialise the deck. It's the main "weakness" of Solitaire, and the most recent Mind Candy email in this thread seems to hint that's the expected way to proceed.


I wasn't saying it would be an EASY way of finding the right answer, just that it wasn't completely impossible as I had feared, which you were kind enough to point out.

I also think the key and a known starting deck order would be a better method, however, absent that, some kind of computerized search seems like a good surrogate.
_________________
"It says, 'Let's BEE friends'...and there's a picture of a bee!" -Ralph Wiggum
When the Apocalypse comes, it'll be in base64.


PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:16 pm
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cwmajors
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Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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Could the deck as received by Garnet be the -ending- deck order? (I am almost sure I'm not the first person to think this.) Would it be possible to start at the end and work backwards through the cyphertext assuming that whatever the starting deck order is, the -ending- deck order is the same as an unopened deck? (or do we run into the lost-data situation where the jokers are on top and bottom?)

PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 12:05 pm
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James Siegesmund
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Joined: 02 Aug 2006
Posts: 26
Location: Denver, CO

cwmajors wrote:
Could the deck as received by Garnet be the -ending- deck order? (I am almost sure I'm not the first person to think this.) Would it be possible to start at the end and work backwards through the cyphertext assuming that whatever the starting deck order is, the -ending- deck order is the same as an unopened deck? (or do we run into the lost-data situation where the jokers are on top and bottom?)


You aren't the first to think of this, so first things first ... Trout

But to answer you, the ending deck order can't be the same as an unopened deck because the unopened deck has the jokers on the bottom, but no round of Solitaire can end with a joker on the bottom.

I still think that the "working backwards" idea might prove fruitful, as I wonder how many ending deck orders, after 100+ rounds of Solitaire, have NEVER gone through the lost-data situation and thus still could be correctly worked backwards. I suspect there aren't many, and we could say "Garnet worked it out; if he sucessfully worked it backwards, it must end with one of these orders." Unfortunately, I don't have an idea for how to figure out how many orders like this there are, let alone what those orders would actually be.

Here's my best effort at how many possible ending deck orders there might be: There are 54! starting orders. There are 52*53! possible ending orders after round 1 (bottom card must be one of 52 non-jokers, next one up one of the remaining 53 cards, above that one of the remaining 52 ... = 52*(53*52*51...)=52*53!). So by the end of the first round, we've lost 2*53! orders, or 1/27 of our starting orders. I'm not sure you would keep losing that fraction of possible orders each round, but if you did, by round 100 there would only be 54! * (1/27)^100 possible orders, which might very well be a manageable number.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:26 pm
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cmlobue
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Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 112

James Siegesmund wrote:
I'm not sure you would keep losing that fraction of possible orders each round, but if you did, by round 100 there would only be 54! * (1/27)^100 possible orders, which might very well be a manageable number.


That number is right around 1.7 x 10 -71 , which is not very manageable for different reasons.

I think if we tried to work backwards from a deck order, it wouldn't take us too long to determine that it's impossible to reverse Solitaire that many times.

Not that I have any better ideas, so feel free to try!

PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 3:31 pm
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sixsidedsquare
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Joined: 24 Mar 2005
Posts: 409
Location: 60E

I've been mulling this idea over for the past few days and am wondering if maybe we could actually crack the solitaire cipher kind of how the Enigma was cracked.

In simplified theory the solitaire cipher can give you any possible keystream, therefore a brute force of all decks would give you all possible outputs containing every possible string of the length of your message. In actual fact though, not every keystream is possible as I try to explain below.

If you take any of the 54! possible starting deck orders and move one step in producing a keystream it will of course come to one of the other possible deck orders. So one deck order will lead to another deck order, which in turn comes to another and eventually you would have come back to your original starting order. This essentially creates a loop or chain of deck orders and keystream output.

I assume (though am not certain) that in each of these chains there would be cards that never influence the movement steps,. So for each chain, the number of total overall deck orders that create different keystream chains is reduced by the factorial of this number. If you could somehow get all these chains of keystreams you could just cycle them along the cipher text, checking the output for English words till you find the correct keystream.

The problem with all this of course is it's all just words. I have no idea how any of the numbers of this would work out, such as the number of chains, or even the lengths of these chains. In fact the more I think about it the more the numbers still seem they will too big to be able to deal with. A very basic probe into sizes involved could be a small program that takes a single deck order and steps through the movement parts of the cipher algorithm, until it comes back to the deck order it started with. Running this overnight would give an indication the length of chains (and if they are actually small enough to be found for that matter). The most likely outcome though, is that this idea isn't at all plausible and just to find one chain would take longer than as many seconds as there are atoms in the universe or some such defeating conclusion.

Comments? Ideas? Crushing facts about the reality of the size of 54!?

-EDIT-
As I woke up this morning I realised that I got something slightly wrong to do with the the total number of deck orders with unique keystream outputs. Rather than it just being reduced by the factorial of the number of non used cards in a chain, it would be the factorial of them multiplied by the length of the chain. It's a small difference, but every reduction counts.

PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2006 8:08 am
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Koblin
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sixsidedsquare wrote:
In simplified theory the solitaire cipher can give you any possible keystream, therefore a brute force of all decks would give you all possible outputs containing every possible string of the length of your message.


No, as there is only a fixed amount of initial entropy (The initial card ordering, or the passphrase used to create it.) In order to create every possible keystream, you would need an entropy source of 4.7 bits per character in the keystream. Thus, Solitaire can't possibly generate all possible keystreams of length 51. (As this would require 240 bits of entropy, and it only has at most around 237 to play with.) As the length of the keystream increases past 51, the proportion of keystreams of that length that Solitaire can generate decreases.

Ciphers that have the "all outputs are possible" property require sources of entropy as large as the message.

sixsidedsquare wrote:

If you take any of the 54! possible starting deck orders and move one step in producing a keystream it will of course come to one of the other possible deck orders. So one deck order will lead to another deck order, which in turn comes to another and eventually you would have come back to your original starting order. This essentially creates a loop or chain of deck orders and keystream output.


Though it must (eventually) enter a loop, if Solitaire's next state function is not reversible there is no guarantee that the original starting point is in a repeating part of the loop.

sixsidedsquare wrote:

Comments? Ideas? Crushing facts about the reality of the size of 54!?


54! is big. Any suggested method of breaking Solitaire that involves searching through any significant fraction of the possible decks is unlikely to be practical.

PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2006 10:39 pm
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sixsidedsquare
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Joined: 24 Mar 2005
Posts: 409
Location: 60E

Koblin wrote:

Though it must (eventually) enter a loop, if Solitaire's next state function is not reversible there is no guarantee that the original starting point is in a repeating part of the loop.

Oh hell, you're right. It doesn't make loops like I was thinking at all. The initial sate could lead to a second state, which leads to a third, and the third could go back to the second without ever going back to the initial one.

So that's that idea completely bust. If only we could see what we are missing and actually solve the card the way it's supposed to be solved.

PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2006 2:56 am
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kian
Boot

Joined: 16 Feb 2006
Posts: 24

When keying a deck for Solitaire using a passphrase, some different keys result in the same deck order. For example, here is the process for the keys "EFO" and "EKT", taken step by step...

Quote:
Solitaire passphrase "EFO"...
Step 1 (A down 1): 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,54,53
Step 2 (B down 2): 1,54,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53
Step 3 (triple cut): 54,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,1
Step 4 (count cut 1): 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,1
Key step (count cut 5): 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,2,3,4,5,6,1
Step 1 (A down 1): 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,54,53,2,3,4,5,6,1
Step 2 (B down 2): 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,2,54,3,4,5,6,1
Step 3 (triple cut): 3,4,5,6,1,53,2,54,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52
Step 4 (count cut 52): 51,3,4,5,6,1,53,2,54,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,52
Key step (count cut 6): 53,2,54,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,52
Step 1 (A down 1): 2,53,54,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,52
Step 2 (B down 2): 2,53,7,8,54,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,52
Step 3 (triple cut): 9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,52,53,7,8,54,2
Step 4 (count cut 2): 11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,52,53,7,8,54,9,10,2
Key step (count cut 15): 26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,52,53,7,8,54,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,2

Solitaire passphrase "EKT"...
Step 1 (A down 1): 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,54,53
Step 2 (B down 2): 1,54,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53
Step 3 (triple cut): 54,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,1
Step 4 (count cut 1): 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,1
Key step (count cut 5): 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,2,3,4,5,6,1
Step 1 (A down 1): 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,54,53,2,3,4,5,6,1
Step 2 (B down 2): 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,2,54,3,4,5,6,1
Step 3 (triple cut): 3,4,5,6,1,53,2,54,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52
Step 4 (count cut 52): 51,3,4,5,6,1,53,2,54,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,52
Key step (count cut 11): 9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,53,2,54,7,8,52
Step 1 (A down 1): 9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,2,53,54,7,8,52
Step 2 (B down 2): 9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,2,53,7,8,54,52
Step 3 (triple cut): 52,53,7,8,54,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,2
Step 4 (count cut 2): 7,8,54,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,52,53,2
Key step (count cut 20): 26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,3,4,5,6,1,52,53,7,8,54,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,2


I haven't yet been able to understand the equivalence classes of keys. In the examples above the 'K' is five letters past 'F' and the 'O' is five letters before 'T', so they effectively balance out, but it's not always that simple... Can anyone figure out some rules for which keys would be equivalent? And would these be useful in limiting the search space for a systematic attack on keys?

PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2006 7:18 pm
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