Return to Unfiction unforum
 a.r.g.b.b 
FAQ FAQ   Search Search 
 
Welcome!
New users, PLEASE read these forum guidelines. New posters, SEARCH before posting and read these rules before posting your killer new campaign. New players may also wish to peruse the ARG Player Tutorial.

All users must abide by the Terms of Service.
Website Restoration Project
This archiving project is a collaboration between Unfiction and Sean Stacey (SpaceBass), Brian Enigma (BrianEnigma), and Laura E. Hall (lehall) with
the Center for Immersive Arts.
Announcements
This is a static snapshot of the
Unfiction forums, as of
July 23, 2017.
This site is intended as an archive to chronicle the history of Alternate Reality Games.
  

The time now is Thu Nov 14, 2024 2:00 pm
All times are UTC - 4 (DST in action)		 View posts in this forum since last visit
View unanswered posts in this forum
Calendar
 Forum index » Archive » Archive: MetaCortechs » MetaCortechs: Puzzles
Temporal pattern in paranormal events
View previous topicView next topic
Page 2 of 2 [30 Posts]   Goto page: Previous 1, 2
Author Message
mulder
Boot

Joined: 23 Oct 2003
Posts: 53

Hey could this be a clue on where the next event will be, or even the actual events pattern?? I'm not good with this geografic stuff... but this image it's definetly not professional like the other images on http://www.murpha.com ...

What yall think? Confused
_________________
The Truth is Out There

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2003 10:22 pm
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
Marl64
Unfettered


Joined: 04 Oct 2003
Posts: 456
Location: Prisoner of Zion

 		Re: Temporal pattern in paranormal events
xnbomb wrote:
Here's the spatial model again, with distance from Redland versus the event ID number:



This suggests an expanding pattern from a central point, identified here by "mean distance". So what's at that mean distance? The origin?

xnbombs graph looks like a linear representation of a circular function and for sometime I've had this idea that these points could be where a spiral emanating at this origin intersects with the line.

Sadly I don't have my graphics apps available at the moment to demonstrate the idea and see if it can contribute to any temporal theory.
_________________
Marl
(There is no spoon, oh wait, there it is)

PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2003 3:53 pm
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
xnbomb
Unfettered


Joined: 13 Oct 2003
Posts: 660
Location: J302B S8JDC

 		Re: Temporal pattern in paranormal events
Marl64 wrote:
This suggests an expanding pattern from a central point, identified here by "mean distance". So what's at that mean distance? The origin?

I plotted the mean line mainly to show that it's a waveform that is pretty symmetrical. I don't know that the mean in and of itself has meaning. Basically, it's a one-dimensional distance analysis along a line, and the origin point is arbitrary for the linear analysis ... Redland makes some sense, but put the origin anywhere on the line, measure the distance from it to the points (and be sure to express the results as positive or negative if they are on either side of the chosen origin) and the plot will look the same.

You are correct, though ... the pattern of events is oscillating (or revolving) around the midpoint of the line found by taking the mean of the event coordinates, so that location is the only origin (in the cartesian coordinate sense) one could choose that isn't arbitrary ... it has a statistical meaning in terms of the rest of the points. Might it have a further meaning or cause as well? Possibly ... it depends why the pattern is the way it is, and we don't know the answer for that one yet.

Marl64 wrote:
xnbombs graph looks like a linear representation of a circular function and for sometime I've had this idea that these points could be where a spiral emanating at this origin intersects with the line.

That's undoubtedly true. An expanding spiral with the right parameters should fit, with the spiral passing through the line at the event points . Who knows, it may even explain the timing (where the date of an event is determined by when the spiral crosses the line, assuming we move along the spiral at some known speed). It would be a real kick if this was some kind of Lorenz system (carelessly.bh keeps getting posted so its on my mind). However, with the limited precision of location and timing data that we have, I doubt we could ever fit that model ... perhaps Beth will tell us the pattern she recognized and it will be the more complex and precise solution that we probably cannot find.
_________________
My location is a little tricky, but sooner or later, you'll get the knack.

{J302B S8JDC, 8996N M8L4W, 92D40 Q1JX5, 4PPRN R2B97, 8DC7C NZJNV, 8CH7V Q891H}

PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:54 pm
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
Marl64
Unfettered


Joined: 04 Oct 2003
Posts: 456
Location: Prisoner of Zion

 		Re: Temporal pattern in paranormal events
xnbomb wrote:
I don't know that the mean in and of itself has meaning...
...An expanding spiral with the right parameters should fit

Ok, so lets' mix in a rough approximation of the centre...
Code:
98    Flying cat      Kansas   09/24/03 aft.(4:54 PM)

Take a spiral formation, eminating in the vicinity of kansas, click your heels together and see where you get. Very Happy

Another matrix reference? Laughing
_________________
Marl
(There is no spoon, oh wait, there it is)

PostPosted: Fri Nov 07, 2003 5:21 pm
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
colin
Entrenched

Joined: 13 Oct 2003
Posts: 810
Location: Australia

 		I am posting this on belhalf of White_Night, its all his work.

Following on from the IRC discussion of finding a formula for these events White_Knight came up with the prediction of 28.28 for the latitude with the formula:y=(((1.0000000025^(100000000*t))*((-1)^t))*(1.77)+38.47)
He wanted you to know:
<White_Knight> you may want to put that i actualy went through a long prosess to figure out the formula and didn't just pull it out of my ass
*** White_Knight was kicked by oracle (Watch your language!)


finding where this intersects with your predicted line gives the next event in the bermuda triangle.


[colin]Here's a map i made (badly): http://www.abbl.org/~colin_robot/predict2.gif [/colin]

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2003 1:08 am
 View user's profile MSN Messenger
 Back to top 
Semioclast
Boot

Joined: 30 Oct 2003
Posts: 68
Azathoth666 wrote:
Look out... we're breaching phsychology and philosophical discussions here... Very Happy


I'm, trying to get a discussion about these very things going HERE.

Psychology, psychoanalysis, feminism, ontology, deconstruction, Marxist theory, philosophy in general, etc., etc.

All are welcome (and it is a great way to kill downtime resulting form lack of updates)
_________________
"I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth." --Umberto Eco

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2003 2:15 am
Last edited by Semioclast on Wed Nov 12, 2003 5:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
 View user's profile Visit poster's website AIM Address
 Back to top 
xnbomb
Unfettered


Joined: 13 Oct 2003
Posts: 660
Location: J302B S8JDC

 		Patterns
colin wrote:
White_Knight came up with the prediction of 28.28 for the latitude with the formula:y=(((1.0000000025^(100000000*t))*((-1)^t))*(1.77)+38.47)

finding where this intersects with your predicted line gives the next event in the bermuda triangle.

At first I didn't understand this model, but now (after chatting with White_Knight) I see that what he's done is fit a numerical expression for the expanding amplitude wave that you've seen above for 98-103. Enter t values of 1 through 6 (for 98 through 103), and you get something back that is pretty close to the latitudes where the events occurred. Since the events are more or less constrained to the line, it is sufficient to predict the latitude, as the longitude is linearly constrained to it by the line.

I agree with his prediction in the sense that if you maintain the expansion of the amplitude of the wave, you would get a point somewhere out in the Atlantic. But clearly the amplitude expansion has been curtailed if event 104 (provisional ID) is texel's experience in Georgia. Conveniently, if you flip that new distance symmetrically back to the NW, it puts 105 (provisional ID) in Olympic National Park in western WA.

This is good work by White_Knight, operating on the necessary assumption that 104 would follow the pattern shown by 98-103. Unfortunately, much as was the case after 92-97, it seems like the pattern has changed again. I suppose I'm not surprised ... 102 and 103 had to be consistent if Beth was to use 98-101 to predict them so she could go out there and run into AI man. Now that he can visit her at home, that is no longer necessary. The events still seem to be happening on the line, and still seem to bounce back and forth from SE to NW, but where they are on the line (what distance away from the previous event) is following a new rule.

We're no closer to fitting a spiral to the events in 2D geographic space. Based on some efforts by Colin and some work I've done just looking at the rate of the amplitude increase, it might not be possible for it to be a spiral with a single set of consistent parameters. The distances between spatially adjacent points along the line are irregular (i.e. they don't consistently increase or decrease as you get away from the center), so it cannot really be a regular spiral to fit it (Marl64, we may have to give up on that one). Likewise, no luck yet on a more sophisticated space-time model.

It is interesting to note that texel's whomp (which I am calling 104) seems to have happened on a Saturday, which also breaks the weekday model I had going for 98-103. This could be another indication of a 'change of state' in the event pattern, or may just mean that my weekday model was coincidentally correct for 98-103.

(EDIT: But if it is on a Sunday, it's fine ... that would make Georgia a Sunday state next to Alabama which is a Monday state ... it would also have the nice effect of forming this sequence going from SE to NW on the line:

Georgia - Sunday
Alabama - Monday
Mississippi - Tuesday
Arkansas - Monday
Oklahoma - Tuesday
Kansas - Wednesday
New Mexico - Tuesday
Wyoming - Wednesday
Idaho - Thursday
Washington - Friday

I'm starting to wonder about when Texel's whomp occurred. The paintover stuff would all seem to indicate Saturday, November 8th but the odd thing is that none of it got posted until late on Sunday, November 9th ... if Texel's posts happened on the 8th, why didn't they appear until the 9th?)
_________________
My location is a little tricky, but sooner or later, you'll get the knack.

{J302B S8JDC, 8996N M8L4W, 92D40 Q1JX5, 4PPRN R2B97, 8DC7C NZJNV, 8CH7V Q891H}

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2003 3:10 am
Last edited by xnbomb on Wed Nov 12, 2003 5:57 pm; edited 2 times in total
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
colin
Entrenched

Joined: 13 Oct 2003
Posts: 810
Location: Australia

 		Sorry about the unclear post. Put it down to post-exam brain drain. any way you made sense of it now. I think some of the confusion was because in generating the model it wasn't viewed as a wave but as series of points or values.

You might find the pattern is going through another phase eg. collapsing on itself. I guess time will tell.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2003 6:53 am
 View user's profile MSN Messenger
 Back to top 
Marl64
Unfettered


Joined: 04 Oct 2003
Posts: 456
Location: Prisoner of Zion
colin wrote:
You might find the pattern is going through another phase eg. collapsing on itself. I guess time will tell.

Hey that's not a bad idea, and it solves the problem of tracking events out to sea Very Happy
xnbomb wrote:
It is interesting to note that texel's whomp (which I am calling 104) seems to have happened on a Saturday, which also breaks the weekday model

With regard to the pattern and how the texel one doesn't fit, don't forget
texel wrote:
something's not right here. duration and execution of whomp is not happening as a chaotic outward ripple from epicenter
Which suggests that this one might be something else entirely and not meant to fit with the rest.


Edit: Another thought, if each whomp occurs as a "chaotic outward ripple", then could the same be said for the pattern as a whole - just the matter of the significance of the line then. Rolling Eyes
_________________
Marl
(There is no spoon, oh wait, there it is)

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2003 9:11 pm
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
out to lunch
Boot

Joined: 06 Nov 2003
Posts: 47

 		Just taking a different perspective on the plot that xnbomb made that showed the distance from Redland versus the event number. To me it looked like a sine wave riding on either a linear, exponential or a sinusoidal carrier wave. If it is linear or exponential, then the next event would indeed fall in the Bermuda Triangle as colin predicted using White_Knight's formula.

If the carrier wave is sinusoidal, however, the next event would occur at almost the identical location as event 102, which would be back in Alabama. I've attached a plot of the following equation, which is what I used to extrapolate the possible location of event 104:

y(x) = -1000*sin[(pi/10)*(98-x)]*cos[pi*(98-x)]

Where:
x = the event number
y(x) = distance from epicenter (assuming that the epicenter is where event number 98 occurred)
Units of y(x) are in miles

Note:
I didn't have the exact numbers that xnbomb used to create his plot. The coordinates I used were gleaned from the plot that he posted, so there is definatelyt error in them. Also, the equation above does not fit exactly with the data points from xnbombs plot, but it's close.
temporalequation.jpg
 Description   
 Filesize   40.11KB
 Viewed   228 Time(s)

temporalequation.jpg
_________________
It took me 20 years to solve the Rubiks cube. What makes me think I can solve an ARG?

PostPosted: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:13 pm
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
surfloser
Veteran

Joined: 10 Nov 2003
Posts: 118

 		so are you guys predicting a flux in it, a continuation, or a collapse?
lol i was thinking about it and you cant predict anything cuz there is no time variable
lol im stoopid
_________________
Question everything

PostPosted: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:40 pm
Last edited by surfloser on Thu Nov 13, 2003 2:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
xnbomb
Unfettered


Joined: 13 Oct 2003
Posts: 660
Location: J302B S8JDC

 		Nice work
out to lunch wrote:
To me it looked like a sine wave riding on either a linear, exponential or a sinusoidal carrier wave.
Wow, that looks really good. I've been avoiding trying to find the mathematical expression of the expanding wave myself, just hoping else would do it for me Very Happy . Nice job.

out to lunch wrote:
If the carrier wave is sinusoidal, however, the next event would occur at almost the identical location as event 102, which would be back in Alabama. I've attached a plot of the following equation, which is what I used to extrapolate the possible location of event 104
I imagine you could tweak your equation a little so that 103 is not the maximum amplitude. I write that because it looks like texel's whomp could be 104 (it is on the line) and it is in fact just a little further away than 103 (another 100 miles or so further from Redland). If we take the Elmview, GA event as 104, then your equation would explain why the increase in amplitude is now falling off ... all you have to do is tweak it so it'll peak at 104 (or 105, which looks like it should be in Olympic National Park, WA).

out to lunch wrote:
I didn't have the exact numbers that xnbomb used to create his plot. The coordinates I used were gleaned from the plot that he posted, so there is definatelyt error in them. Also, the equation above does not fit exactly with the data points from xnbombs plot, but it's close.
That's good, because there really are not exact numbers Laughing . The coordinates I've used for the events are from finding the locations of towns based on Beth's (and now texel's) descriptions, and those are sometimes not that precise (she tells us it was a near a certain town). Furthermore, the points don't precisely fall on a line, just very close to one. So, I think it is okay for any model we come up with to have an amount of 'slop' in fit that is roughly equivalent to the amount in the input. I'd be happy to send you the distances I've got if you'd like them ... or try Colin, he caclulated a set of distances too.

One teeny criticism: Your attached JPEG was named temporalequation.jpg. This is not really temporal, as it does not tell us when events will occur. It is, though, an improved mathematical expression of the distance model ... reformulate it so the wave can get just a little bigger at its peak, and I think we're in business.
_________________
My location is a little tricky, but sooner or later, you'll get the knack.

{J302B S8JDC, 8996N M8L4W, 92D40 Q1JX5, 4PPRN R2B97, 8DC7C NZJNV, 8CH7V Q891H}

PostPosted: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:55 pm
 View user's profile
 Back to top 
heatha
Veteran


Joined: 04 Nov 2003
Posts: 74

 		The sine wave....wouldn't relate to a harmonic, would it? Lending itself to a Fourier analysis? Did anybody ever break down the acoustics in the Oct. 31 phone message?

PostPosted: Thu Nov 13, 2003 2:29 pm
 View user's profile Visit poster's website AIM Address
 Back to top 
chancesend
Veteran


Joined: 08 Oct 2003
Posts: 128
Location: Colorado, USA
heatha wrote:
The sine wave....wouldn't relate to a harmonic, would it? Lending itself to a Fourier analysis? Did anybody ever break down the acoustics in the Oct. 31 phone message?


I did some demodulation of the "beeps" that we were hearing (which, in my mind, were actually modulated speech phrases - I posted a couple of examples in that thread, if you want to browse through it). However, my final conclusion was that this message wasn't designed to be saved and analyzed heavily. All we needed to get out of it was what could have been heard by listening to it once: Something went wrong at Aquapolis, and for some reason some sort of transcript was sent to Marcus Ormond, and also to us.

If the sinusoidal pattern in the temporal events is indeed modulated with a lower-freq sinusoid, then it wouldn't make for a very interesting Fourier analysis. Instead of an impulse at the sinusoid's frequency, there would be two impulses on either side of the frequency.

I think it'll take one more event for us to determine the envelope of the sinusoid (linear, exponential, or sinusoidal). After that, we should have enough data to predict events in the future (unless the next event is totally whacked in its location).
_________________
--
(Chance's End )
Skyway 12" now on sale! (MP3 of Radio Mix)

PostPosted: Thu Nov 13, 2003 4:26 pm
 View user's profile Visit poster's website
 Back to top 
BrianEnigma
Entrenched


Joined: 05 Oct 2003
Posts: 1199
Location: Pacific Northwest

 		Did the following statement ever get factored into the pattern? Is there even going to be a pattern anymore now that Beth found Mister GC?

Quote:
xnbomb: i'm wonder how you sussed out the pattern in events and if we see the same pattern
xnbomb: i find it interesting the event occurred in a line
bethlmcconnell: yes, it was based on the date of the previous location and where the previous location took place
bethlmcconnell: i forget the actual pattern, i worked it out on paper at home.

_________________
Y0 Resources / VP Wiki / PXC Catalog / Metacortex

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2003 1:32 am
 View user's profile Visit poster's website
 Back to top 
Display posts from previous:   Sort by:   
Page 2 of 2 [30 Posts]   Goto page: Previous 1, 2
View previous topicView next topic
 Forum index » Archive » Archive: MetaCortechs » MetaCortechs: Puzzles
Jump to:  


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
You cannot post calendar events in this forum



Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group