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 Forum index » Archive » Archive: General » GAME: Push, NV
Jim's Accusation
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Stepher
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Joined: 25 Sep 2002
Posts: 16
Location: Ontario, Canada

Jim's Accusation

After Jim watched the tables in the Casino for 4 hours, he confronted Mr. Stenis with the pay out fix.

Jim said he used two theories:

BINOMIAL & QUATRO QUATRO

If anyone can explain these to me I would appreciate it.

Anyway, Jim came up with these figures:

The Casino is paying out between 55% and 81% (average of 62%) of the time.
Only the normal amount of wins is usually less than 50%.

Stepher
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2002 10:30 pm
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kenbo
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Joined: 26 Sep 2002
Posts: 171

Doing a google on Quatro Quatro brings up a page at OZemail.com.
on Suzie Quatro AKA Leather Tuscadero from happy days.

Into some wierd stuff there OZ?
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I don't find excessive sanity to be a virtue.

http://kenspage1.tripod.com


PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2002 10:52 pm
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yorock
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Joined: 26 Sep 2002
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Binary just to refers to probablities that have two outcome like flipping a coin..it can be either heads or tails. If you bet someone on the outcome of a coin toss you should win 50 percent of the time. Most casino games are more complex and all of them from a mathamatical standpoint have odds that favor the house. this casino is paying out more than it is taking in. That was evidently money they were unloading from the truck.
This supports someones theory that the entire operation is just an elaborate money laundering operation. (trade one dollar good money for $2 in bad money). While this certainly fits most of the facts so far I'm hoping for something more intersting

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2002 11:38 pm
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Ozy_y2k
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Hey, I like PINKY Tuscadero, not LEATHER. Razz Shocked

PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2002 1:12 am
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mottjr
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Joined: 26 Sep 2002
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The Binomial Theorem and Binomial Ditribution have many applications in the mathematical field of probability. Jim would have definitely made use of them in his calculations.

I could not hear the second part clearly. I seem to remember sort of disturbance happening at that point in the scene and his sentence sort of trailed off. I have never heard of "quatro quatro theory".

As far as explaining them to you though, that's best saved for another day. Confused

PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2002 3:04 pm
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Diandra
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Mathematically Speaking

Other than the binomial reference, Jim spoke of Bayes' theorem and quantal-quantal plots.

Bayes' theorem is named after Rev. Thomas Bayes, an 18th century mathematician who derived a special case of this theorem. Bayes' calculations were published in 1763, two years after his death. Exactly what Bayes intended to do with the calculation, if anything, still remains a mystery today. However, this theorem, as generalized by Laplace, is the basic starting point for inference problems using probability theory as logic.

Bayes' Theorem provides a way to apply quantitative reasoning to what we normally think of as "the scientific method". When several alternative hypotheses are competing for our belief, we test them by deducing consequences of each one, then conducting experimental tests to observe whether or not those consequences actually occur. If an hypothesis predicts that something should occur, and that thing does occur, it strengthens our belief in the truthfulness of the hypothesis. Conversely, an observation that contradicts the prediction would weaken (or destroy) our confidence in the hypothesis.

Jim's explanation of how he deduced the 62% payout probability fits in with this method of theorem application. There are Bayes' theorem calculators on the 'net to save you from doing the math, but apparently Jim didn't need them, (hence the "No one's this good!") or similar remark by the security cam observers.

Hope that helped.

PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2002 3:29 pm
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Wouldn't u like 2 no?
Guest


I believe a binomial is any term with 2 parts, for example, 3x. 3 and x would, separately, be monomials.

PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2002 11:22 pm
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LordKinbote
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Joined: 25 Sep 2002
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Not quite. A binomial is a mathematical phrase with two separate terms, so 3x + 7 would be a binomial, its terms being 3x and 7.

---Scott

PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2002 1:59 am
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cpababe
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And thus we are now discussing binomial equations rather than binomial distributions. Two different theorems. Check back a couple posts to get back on track.

PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2002 11:53 am
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LordKinbote
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Joined: 25 Sep 2002
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Yeah, I know, but I just had to correct the error. Wink

This is what you want:

From http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/hyperstat/A2301.html :

When a coin is flipped, the outcome is either a head or a tail; when a magician guesses the card selected from a deck, the magician can either be correct or incorrect; when a baby is born, the baby is either born in the month of March or is not. In each of these examples, an event has two mutually exclusive possible outcomes. For convenience, one of the outcomes can be labeled "success" and the other outcome "failure." If an event occurs N times (for example, a coin is flipped N times), then the binomial distribution can be used to determine the probability of obtaining exactly r successes in the N outcomes. The binomial probability for obtaining r successes in N trials is:

P(r) = (N! / (r!(N-r)!))(pi^r)((1-x)^(N-r))


where P(r) is the probability of exactly r successes, N is the number of events, and p is the probability of success on any one trial. This formula assumes that the events:
(a) are dichotomous (fall into only two categories)
(b) are mutually exclusive
(c) are independent and
(d) are randomly selected

PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2002 4:51 pm
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nevada1955
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Joined: 27 Sep 2002
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Found this at mathworks.com. but the spelling is quantile-quantile. Could this be the plots Jim was using at the casino?



Quantile-Quantile Plots


A quantile-quantile plot is useful for determining whether two samples come from the same distribution (whether normally distributed or not).

The example shows a quantile-quantile plot of two samples from a Poisson distribution.

x = poissrnd(10,50,1);
y = poissrnd(5,100,1);
qqplot(x,y);



Even though the parameters and sample sizes are different, the straight line relationship shows that the two samples come from the same distribution.

Like the normal probability plot, the quantile-quantile plot has three graphical elements. The pluses are the quantiles of each sample. By default the number of pluses is the number of data values in the smaller sample. The solid line joins the 25th and 75th percentiles of the samples. The dashed line extends the solid line to the extent of the sample.

The example below shows what happens when the underlying distributions are not the same.

x = normrnd(5,1,100,1);
y = weibrnd(2,0.5,100,1);
qqplot(x,y);



These samples clearly are not from the same distribution.

It is incorrect to interpret a linear plot as a guarantee that the two samples come from the same distribution. But, for assessing the validity of a statistical procedure that depends on the two samples coming from the same distribution (e.g., ANOVA), a linear quantile-quantile plot should be sufficient.




Quote:


PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2002 2:46 pm
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