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 Forum index » Meta » General META Discussion
MemeJacking UFOs - Examples of Hijacking Viral Markets
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elfis
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MemeJacking UFOs - Examples of Hijacking Viral Markets

Quote:
To hijack something is to forcefuly take over something in order to alter its direction for your own purpose.

A meme hijack is just that: When a memetic engineer splices a meme in with another more successful (more horizontal) meme in hopes that his meme will carry on with the other meme.

http://everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=1401073


Besides the old game of MAJESTIC's use of UFO lore there have been at least two or more recent cases of gamers and marketeers hijacking the existing facts and fictions for their own advertising needs:

Alienware Behind 'Drone' UFOs?
http://www.dailygrail.com/node/5594

[Spec] Strange Craft
http://forums.unfiction.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=342446

Terry Heaton's PoMo Blog
06/19/2006 Entry: "A new form of entertainment"
http://donatacom.com/archives/00001379.htm

Are there any other recent examples?

Many were speculating that the Haiti UFOotage was possibly part of the HALO Iris promos since they were using the UFOcult styled Society of the Ancients for real world faux-flashmobs. Seems like it could just as easily have been an advert for the software the professed hoaxer later admitted to using.

ARG: Iris (Halo 3)
http://forums.unfiction.com/forums/index.php?f=224

How often do ARGs and/or Viral Marketing Campaigns tap an existing real-world demographic that deals with the realms of politics, social activism, or strange phenomena investigations?

PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 4:23 pm
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FLmutant
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Color me guilty as charged, good buddy. Embarassed

Here would be my issue: hijacking implies a desire to alter the existing state of the meme. That seems like a cruel knife, much the way some people look at our "fiction" and instead see "lies". Artists use themes plucked from all ranges of inspiration, but that doesn't mean they're attempting to hijack all of them. Part of art's job is to reflect that stuff back at us again, right?

Example -- "Who is Benjamin Stove?" was an ARG we did for General Motors to promote ethanol awareness. It used a crop-circle theme through much of its narrative, heaped up with an almost "Chariot of the Gods" campiness. At the same time, it also set alot of the action in Brazil, in part because of what was happening there with the ethanol revolution. The crop-circle became an easy narrative device for moving the action from place to place -- where they were happening was more important than why they were happening (poor Ben Stove wasn't the most lucid of old coots.)

It would be incorrect to think that planting false crop circle information into the crop circle researcher community was a goal: these were all shaped like ethanol molecules, for crying out loud, which should be a wink to a community that has far more ambitious pranksters. No crops were harmed in the making of "Who is Benjamin Stove?" but it did produce Foily: Foily!

PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 9:48 pm
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rose
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I'm sorry, I don't understand the question.
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 10:14 pm
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sixsidedsquare
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I think it is only natural for any story at all to try to tap into existing demographics and memes. The thing with any piece of fiction is that it can only actually start when it starts, and will end when it ends. This of course is different for different mediums; movies and books starting when you begin them and only last until they are finished, ARGs similarly have a running time, though it is more a set time than the spontaneous nature of movies/books. The trick of course is how to extend your world beyond the confines imposed by this temporal restriction? The obvious answer is to draw links it to things which are already existing in the real world and will still be there once your story's wold has ended (be these mythos, conspiracies, memes etc.).

I guess some of what you are getting at though, is when things are done so well that parts over time leak back into the original source, adding to or even distorting it. Take for example the legend of Atlantis (something close to my heart Wink). The original solid source of the myth is only from 2 dialogues written by Plato, Timaeus and Critias. Over time many other people have borrowed from the tale, be it in speculations, fiction or even in their lives (such as the Atlantis psychics), and all this has added much more to the tale itself, with the later works even borrowing from added material and adding to it.

Another great example of story permeating into reality permeating into story is the whole Pine Barrens/egg travel stuff. I wont go into the details of it (I imagine you know it elfis, and others can look it up if interested) but what it nicely brings up is how with something without an open 'owner' as such, canon is decided by the individuals or groups involved with it. Confirmation bias (choosing to accept what you agree with and deny/ignore that which you don't) often plays a large part of this sort of thing, much like it does in conspiracy theories too (in my opinion).

But yeah, I agree with FLmutant that there is a big distinction between using something to add to your story, and taking advantage of something purely to aid your purpose. I guess there defiantly is overlap, but using something just to ride the buzz around it is underhanded in my opinion, though it happens a lot. There is also the flip side I suppose to, like you seem to be getting at quite a bit elfis, purposely trying to distort what you are borrowing from for your own means. This takes the underhanded to a whole new level and I can see how it could be used for things, but I have to say I think this is rare (call me naive, or not crazy depending on your conformation bias Razz) especially ARGwise where most things are just using sources to aid in extending their world and with reality penetration (oooh, I like that term!).

PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:20 am
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notgordian
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Goldstein Collection posted about receiving radio communications from the dead on a paranormal discussion board that dealt with the phenomenon...

PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 9:09 am
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rose
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So the question is about which ARGs have used UFOs or such phenomena in the story?
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 1:10 pm
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elfis
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Thanks to everyone for the responses.

FLmutant wrote:
Color me guilty as charged, good buddy. Embarassed

Here would be my issue: hijacking implies a desire to alter the existing state of the meme. That seems like a cruel knife, much the way some people look at our "fiction" and instead see "lies". Artists use themes plucked from all ranges of inspiration, but that doesn't mean they're attempting to hijack all of them. Part of art's job is to reflect that stuff back at us again, right?

Example -- "Who is Benjamin Stove?" was an ARG we did for General Motors to promote ethanol awareness. It used a crop-circle theme through much of its narrative, heaped up with an almost "Chariot of the Gods" campiness. At the same time, it also set alot of the action in Brazil, in part because of what was happening there with the ethanol revolution. The crop-circle became an easy narrative device for moving the action from place to place -- where they were happening was more important than why they were happening (poor Ben Stove wasn't the most lucid of old coots.)

It would be incorrect to think that planting false crop circle information into the crop circle researcher community was a goal: these were all shaped like ethanol molecules, for crying out loud, which should be a wink to a community that has far more ambitious pranksters. No crops were harmed in the making of "Who is Benjamin Stove?" but it did produce Foily: Foily!


Thanks for this example FLmutant. I was not aware of that one. And certainly faking crop circles is now an art-form whether used by advertisers or those crop glyph makers who actually believe they are interacting with some non-human or human-interfacing intelligence / consciousness.

No charges are to be filed. Very Happy



rose wrote:
I'm sorry, I don't understand the question.


rose wrote:
So the question is about which ARGs have used UFOs or such phenomena in the story?


Hi Rose. Sorry if my rambling and disjointed style confused my intent.

The simple version of my question is, what other examples exist in the ARG and Viral Marketing worlds of the use of themes that revolve around groups (in the real world OOG realm) that have an existing community of people focused upon social and political activism or investigation of strange phenomena?

Or the way I phrased it the first time ...

Quote:
How often do ARGs and/or Viral Marketing Campaigns tap an existing real-world demographic that deals with the realms of politics, social activism, or strange phenomena investigations?


Howdy SixSidedSquare! Good example with the Atlantis mythos!!

sixsidedsquare wrote:
I think it is only natural for any story at all to try to tap into existing demographics and memes. The thing with any piece of fiction is that it can only actually start when it starts, and will end when it ends. This of course is different for different mediums; movies and books starting when you begin them and only last until they are finished, ARGs similarly have a running time, though it is more a set time than the spontaneous nature of movies/books. The trick of course is how to extend your world beyond the confines imposed by this temporal restriction? The obvious answer is to draw links it to things which are already existing in the real world and will still be there once your story's wold has ended (be these mythos, conspiracies, memes etc.).


Yes and I must add that I dig the whole Chaotic Fiction, Immersive Environment approach to non-linear storytelling.

And certainly someone designing a game for pleasure and marketing has to tap into some sort of existing fad or fandom, so to speak, in order for there to be anyone likely to be interested. There will always be those interested in solving puzzles, riddles and mysteries. But how do you make it truly "catching" without tapping into an existing zeitgeist or popular meme?

sixsidedsquare wrote:
I guess some of what you are getting at though, is when things are done so well that parts over time leak back into the original source, adding to or even distorting it. Take for example the legend of Atlantis (something close to my heart Wink). The original solid source of the myth is only from 2 dialogues written by Plato, Timaeus and Critias. Over time many other people have borrowed from the tale, be it in speculations, fiction or even in their lives (such as the Atlantis psychics), and all this has added much more to the tale itself, with the later works even borrowing from added material and adding to it.


Yes, the meme of ancient human civilizations on this planet that are not part of the accepted scientific history is perhaps archetypal and resonant with humanity's yearning for that sense of a Lost Paradise or Golden Age.

And those who explore that meme inevitably add to it. And yes that is in part what good art does in it's reflection on a subject, issue or idea.

sixsidedsquare wrote:
Another great example of story permeating into reality permeating into story is the whole Pine Barrens/egg travel stuff. I wont go into the details of it (I imagine you know it elfis, and others can look it up if interested) but what it nicely brings up is how with something without an open 'owner' as such, canon is decided by the individuals or groups involved with it. Confirmation bias (choosing to accept what you agree with and deny/ignore that which you don't) often plays a large part of this sort of thing, much like it does in conspiracy theories too (in my opinion).


Aaaahhhh yes. Matheny and cohorts. I was being led to believe all sorts of nasty possibilities about him. However, his most recent interview at the link below has really made me like him a LOT. I don't know if the guy interviewing him is/was in on it originally or not.

It's funny ... I remember when I came across the Incunabula / Ong's Hat material way back when. I did not recognize it as anything other than intriguing speculative "non-fiction" of the sort that made me wonder if it was simply a literary hoax.

There is much information in that interview and it's attendant transcript. Like, Matheny makes it sound as if the Ong's Hat stuff was supposed to become a part of MAJESTIC, only the events of September 11th ended the game and thus Incunabula never became involved. I don't know if that's true or accurate. I'm still looking for folks who worked on the inside of that EA project.

Here is the link to the fullest explication of that material:

Quote:
"elfis"]Garden of Truth on the El-Centro "ARG" plus Matheny interview
* Part 1: Milford Connolly introduction
* Part 2: Milford reads Chapter 1
* Part 3: Milford Reads Author Interview
* Part 4: Milford interviews author Joseph Matheny

http://el-centro.net
http://www.incunabula.org
http://gardenoftruth.org

Complete Podcast with Interview
http://www.theeggmovie.com/audio/El-Centro-96kbps.mp3

Transcript
http://www.theeggmovie.com/tran/31869-a.html

Joseph Matheny - Cultural Provocateur - MediaKaos - FringeWare
http://www.sirbacon.org/content/76.txt


sixsidedsquare wrote:
But yeah, I agree with FLmutant that there is a big distinction between using something to add to your story, and taking advantage of something purely to aid your purpose. I guess there defiantly is overlap, but using something just to ride the buzz around it is underhanded in my opinion, though it happens a lot. There is also the flip side I suppose to, like you seem to be getting at quite a bit elfis, purposely trying to distort what you are borrowing from for your own means. This takes the underhanded to a whole new level and I can see how it could be used for things, but I have to say I think this is rare (call me naive, or not crazy depending on your conformation bias Razz) especially ARGwise where most things are just using sources to aid in extending their world and with reality penetration (oooh, I like that term!).


Two other examples I had wanted to include but didn't were the marketing efforts of a onetime Matheny associate who does just that, "using something just to ride the buzz around it." Any guesses whom I'm referring to ... initials are BM ...

BM's "RAW Prank"
http://rawfans.tribe.net/thread/d5c82c28-cc27-44b2-9913-a60cd60c18ca

BM's use of Bill Hicks as a marketing tool
"what would Bill Hicks say? 300k in 90 days"
http://www.copywritersboard.com/member-content/6222-what-would-bill-hicks-say-300k-90-days.html

And yes, I think there are nefarious flip side uses like this. BM's approach seems so bent on profiteering that it does bother me and his use of multiple avatars and crazy prose in forums creeps me out. Not to mention the irony of the use of Bill Hicks as a marketing tool.

One of the examples I've given was that of Daniel Davenport's "memejumping" the SERPO saga - a saga which is believed to be actual AFOSI disinfo for a very real world exercise in CounterTerrorism / CounterIntelligence. The website I found Daniel's video at had not apparently made the connection (or at least did not mention it in their article) that it was a hoax and not part of the SERPO saga proper but rather, a "memejumping" entertainment/advert.

News on 'Project SERPO' deceptions takes researchers, public on complex paths to truth by Steve Hammons
http://www.ufodigest.com/projectserponews.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZqtzKW4hH4

elfis wrote:
Terry Heaton's PoMo Blog
06/19/2006 Entry: "A new form of entertainment"
http://donatacom.com/archives/00001379.htm


It IS obviously a hoax. The fact that the contrived reality of the movie WEST WORLD is playing in the background was enough for me to deduce that; beyond the sheer silliness of the storyline. But I still don't know what this hoax was selling.

Thanks again to everyone who has participated in this discussion so far. Thank you for being so tolerant of my ramblings. When I was lurking I kept thinking to myself, "Wow! What a CIVIL forum this is. So unlike all the others out there."

Anyway ... this and other topics occur to me as further areas of discussion beyond the two I've started so far.

Two that seem relevant but may warrant there own threads are begun below ...

- SMiles

-=-=-=-=-=-

Along these same lines of discussion has been my unease over "Reality Shows" and the old fashioned "Candid Camera" type hidden video prank shows. As much as I've always found them entertaining, it's hard for my paranoic aspects to not see them as a dangerous trend in non-consensual psychological experiments that may have lasting influence on those who watch them.

For a more down to earth example, consider these prank shows from French television:

Forbidden Files: 'Tibor Nagy' Contactee
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2392041176752289356

'Tibor Nagy Moon Film' Inquiry - Mike Farrell - UFO UpDates eList 1999
http://www.virtuallystrange.net/ufo/updates/1999/mar/m04-012.shtml

Re: 'Tibor Nagy Moon Film' Inquiry - Jean-Luc Rivera
http://www.virtuallystrange.net/ufo/updates/1999/mar/m04-020.shtml

Document_interdit_Le_cas_Ferguson
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5829917976580909067

-=-=-=-=-

And while I'm flinging about with the tangential related issues ...

How many of you are familiar with the seemingly scientifically predictable Werther Effect aka Copycat Effect?

Loren Coleman's work in this important area:


The Copycat Effect: How The Media and Popular Culture Trigger The Mayhem in Tomorrow's Headlines by Loren Coleman

http://copycateffect.com
http://copycateffect.blogspot.com

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copycat_suicide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sorrows_of_Young_Werther

http://www.google.com/search?q=werther+copycat
http://www.health.gov.au/internet/wcms/publishing.nsf/Content/4E566AF942B2F1BBCA2572610017F330/$File/sui1.pdf

PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 2:18 pm
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FLmutant
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elfis wrote:
How many of you are familiar with the seemingly scientifically predictable Werther Effect aka Copycat Effect?


I find Loren Coleman's research very questionable: it is nearly a classic case of someone misunderstanding the difference between correlation and causation, especially the recommendations. "Scientifically predictible correlation" is hardly the same thing as "scientifically predictible causation".

PBS link from 2006:

Dewey Cornell, University of Virginia wrote:
Well, I think we need to be very careful about assuming that there is a trend based on the last two cases. And when you say there's been 25, 25 shootings, 25 killings? Were they in schools? Were they outside of schools? The statistics dance around on this.

What we have to keep in mind is that we have 119,000 public schools. We have over 50 million students in those schools, so there will inevitably be some crimes of violence across schools, just like we have shootings in restaurants, and office buildings, and churches, and every other place.

We tend to focus specifically on violence in schools, and we've created a special category of violence called, you know, "school shootings." If we gave equal attention to shootings in restaurants, for example, people would start to think that maybe restaurants weren't safe, or we would talk about restaurant violence or restaurant shootings.

What we have to keep in mind is that school violence actually has been declining for over 10 years, OK? Even before Columbine, school violence was going down. And through Columbine and since Columbine, violence in schools has continued to go down.


Coleman is part of the problem, IMHO -- "violent media produces a violent society" is yet another form of meme-pushing, always one towards censorship and propoganda. Well intentioned? Definitely. Helpful? Not hardly. Scientific? Um ... well ... the lovely thing about science is we're allowed to question people's methodology when they start preaching their conclusions. Good scientists are never afraid of discussing their methodologies.

All kinds of subjects worthy of serious critique before we start worrying about the parsing of each individual word a newscaster says. Maybe we can tackle "bad parenting" or "incivility" or "poverty" all of which research shows has CAUSTIVE effects on these problems instead of just the trivially correlative (like the dreaded "black trenchcoat" oh noes, damn you Keanu!) Sorry to wax issue oriented, nothing gets me hot under the collar like self-appointed censors. Rolling Eyes

PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 3:38 pm
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elfis
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FLmutant wrote:
elfis wrote:
How many of you are familiar with the seemingly scientifically predictable Werther Effect aka Copycat Effect?


I find Loren Coleman's research very questionable: it is nearly a classic case of someone misunderstanding the difference between correlation and causation, especially the recommendations. "Scientifically predictible correlation" is hardly the same thing as "scientifically predictible causation".

<snip>

Coleman is part of the problem, IMHO -- "violent media produces a violent society" is yet another form of meme-pushing, always one towards censorship and propoganda. Well intentioned? Definitely. Helpful? Not hardly. Scientific? Um ... well ... the lovely thing about science is we're allowed to question people's methodology when they start preaching their conclusions. Good scientists are never afraid of discussing their methodologies.

All kinds of subjects worthy of serious critique before we start worrying about the parsing of each individual word a newscaster says. Maybe we can tackle "bad parenting" or "incivility" or "poverty" all of which research shows has CAUSTIVE effects on these problems instead of just the trivially correlative (like the dreaded "black trenchcoat" oh noes, damn you Keanu!) Sorry to wax issue oriented, nothing gets me hot under the collar like self-appointed censors. Rolling Eyes


Yes, indeed. Controversial ideas for a very bad situation. However, have you even read his book? He is NOT a censor.

And as a Fortean and Anomalist, he can look at the data and note those correlations and not get hung up on the causation. His and others appreciation of the strange Name Game within Fortean and UFO cases comes to mind.

But as for the predictive value of the idea...

Quote:
Operationalising Memetics - Suicide, the Werther Effect, and the work of David P. Phillips

Paul Marsden
Graduate Research Centre in the Social Sciences
University of Sussex

<snip>

Summary of empirical research on social contagions conducted by Phillips

The Werther Effect: Fact or Fiction - Summary of Research by D.P. Phillips

Key findings and Conclusion Source

SS Suicide rates increased significantly after suicide stories were reported newspaper stories. The increase was proportional to the amount of newspaper coverage devoted to the suicide stories
American Sociological Review 1974 Vol. 39:340-54

SS Car accident fatalities increased following media representations of suicide implying that some car accident fatalities were in fact imitative suicides
Science 1977 196: 1464-65

SS Car accident fatalities, particularly those resulting from single-car accidents increased significantly three days after a suicide story was publicised in the newspaper press. The increase was proportional to the intensity of the publicity, and the age of the accident victim was positively correlated with the age of the suicide story victim. There was also a corresponding correlation between murder-suicide stories and multiple car crashes involving passenger deaths.
American Journal of Sociology 1979 Vol. 84 No.5: 1150 -1174

SS Publicised murder-suicides were followed by an increase in aeroplane crashes (airline and non-commercial). The increase in aeroplane crashes was proportional to the degree of coverage that these stories received
Social Forces 1980 Vol. 58 (Jun): 1001-1024

SS Daily US suicide rates increased significantly (for a period of less than ten days) following the appearance of highly publicised suicide stories on television evening news programmes.
American Sociological Review 1982 Vol. 47: 802-809

SS Suicide rates, motor vehicle fatality statistics and non-fatal accidents all rose immediately following the transmission of fictional televised suicide stories in 1977
American Journal of Sociology 1982 Vol. 87 No. 6: 1340-1359

SS Homicides in the US increased following heavyweight championship prize-fights in a relationship that persisted after correction for secular trends, seasonal and other extraneous variables. The increase was found to be largest following heavily publicised fights.
American Sociological Review 1983 Vol. 48 (Aug): 560-568

SS Between 1973 and 1979 teenage suicides increased significantly following 38 nationally televised stories of suicide. The intensity of publicity devoted to the suicide stories was significantly correlated to its effect on teenage suicide rates
New England Journal of Medicine 1986 Vol. 315 No.11: 685-9

"No fact is more readily transmissible by contagion than suicide."
Emile Durkheim (Le Suicide [1897] 1951:141)

http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Conf/MemePap/Marsden.html


PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:12 pm
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FLmutant
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I have read Coleman: censors always feel they aren't really censors.

elfis wrote:
And as a Fortean and Anomalist, he can look at the data and note those correlations and not get hung up on the causation. His and others appreciation of the strange Name Game within Fortean and UFO cases comes to mind.

But as for the predictive value of the idea...


Respectfully, in the above you make a classic deductive flaw that memetic engineers rely on (the "statistical regress fallacy"). Predictive value requires causation, not just correlation -- as soon as you extend the thinking in that direction, you've succumbed to a logical fallacy. Correlations about past data do not predict future occurances.

So, for example:

"SS Publicised murder-suicides were followed by an increase in aeroplane crashes (airline and non-commercial). The increase in aeroplane crashes was proportional to the degree of coverage that these stories received"

is a historical correlation. It would be improper to turn that into a causitive predictive argument and thus argue that we should stop covering murder-suicides as news or fiction because they cause more airplanes to crash. In the same way, it seems more plausible that some third factor causes, say, both an increase in the suicide rate and an increase in coverage of suicides in the media, rather than believing that one causes the others.

I had a great professor in college that could illustrate this point well by producing the most hillarious true correlations -- such as the fact an increase in women wearing mini-skirts is followed by a increase in the mean temperature in direct proportion to how much mini-skirt wearing increased. However, it would be a tragic mistake to ban mini-skirts thinking it would help reduce global warming, and you'd be selling women short if we attributed their mini-skirt-wearing choices sheerly to mean average temperature.

Similarly, the last person to shoot a sitting U.S. President did it to impress Jodie Foster. So we should totally ban her from making anymore movies or television shows, just to protect the President, right? I personally believe we should extend that to a general ban of all child stars and former child stars (bye bye High School Musical!) just to be safe while we study the rest of the statistical data.

So I'm cautious of people who support their arguments for particular social policies because of correlational stastistics -- which correlations you find important tend to say more about you than it does about the correlations. Narrativists use that tendency in people to setup a false assumption that they can reveal later for dramatic intent (THE CALL IS COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE! comes from the assumption of the way telephones work, for example.) Which is essentially the topic of your post, just on a different topic than UFOs.

That's why I would describe Coleman as a meme-jacker -- the more successful horizontal meme is our horror that kids shoot each other in schools, and Coleman tries to graft on the meme of "and the media is at least partially to blame." Such is the nature of public discourse in the 21st century, I guess.

PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:18 pm
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rose
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Would World without oil count as a game that involved real-world political activists? I'm not sure how many activists played it.

Investigation of strange phenomenom probably includes monster hunters club which was a game for the movie called the Host. They had some people who were into extreme body modification, I think. Actually monster hunters club might qualify as the people were hunting for monsters.

I think the use of the term "hijack" in the first post confused me. I think of these groups as a possible "audience" for a game, not people who are being used or harmed in some way.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 3:57 pm
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Correlation does NOT imply cause & effect. That was drummed into me in grad school. But still people use those statistics to prove points that meets their own agendas.

Just want to thank all of you posting in this thread. I love the intelligence in this community (it's a pleasant diversion from all the kiddie crap in the 1-18-08 forum).

As for "Collective Detective" - my last recollection was they tried to use the site for a financial purposes and failed.
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Quote:
Correlation does NOT imply cause & effect. That was drummed into me in grad school. But still people use those statistics to prove points that meets their own agendas.


Correlation does not imply cause and effect, but that doesn't mean it's not a bad thing. Sometimes, if there IS a cause and effect, you want to have correlation, to know how powerful the cause and effect is. You also have to realize that the STRENGTH of the correlation as well, a insignifcant correlation of Cause A affecting Cause B really means nothing. And it is always based on data, so data may be faulty.

For the most part, if you want to convince me of cause and effect, use logos and deductive reasoning. Don't state that the death penatly decrease crime rates in cities by 0.064%, state that the death penatly discourage people from doing crimes due to fear of death. The problem is, arguments are a dime a dozen, and without any stats to back them up, then things start getting crazy. But stats are unreliable...so, well, nothing you can do.

PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:50 pm
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Shutaro
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Silent|away wrote:
Quote:
Correlation does NOT imply cause & effect. That was drummed into me in grad school. But still people use those statistics to prove points that meets their own agendas.


Correlation does not imply cause and effect, but that doesn't mean it's not a bad thing. Sometimes, if there IS a cause and effect, you want to have correlation, to know how powerful the cause and effect is. You also have to realize that the STRENGTH of the correlation as well, a insignifcant correlation of Cause A affecting Cause B really means nothing. And it is always based on data, so data may be faulty.


Well, there's always a finite non-zero probability that something entirely unexpected will happen. Even if you have the best data, and a very large sample size, there's always the possibility that the 10 billionth time you push the flowerpot off the building it will fall up instead of falling down, or bounce rather than shattering on the pavement below... You just have to keep at it for long enough. ^.^
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 8:41 pm
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elfis
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FLmutant wrote:
I have read Coleman: censors always feel they aren't really censors.

elfis wrote:
And as a Fortean and Anomalist, he can look at the data and note those correlations and not get hung up on the causation. His and others appreciation of the strange Name Game within Fortean and UFO cases comes to mind.

But as for the predictive value of the idea...


Respectfully, in the above you make a classic deductive flaw that memetic engineers rely on (the "statistical regress fallacy"). Predictive value requires causation, not just correlation -- as soon as you extend the thinking in that direction, you've succumbed to a logical fallacy. Correlations about past data do not predict future occurances.


Howdy again FLmutant ("Ac-cion Mu-tante!")

Thanks for pointing that out.

FLmutant wrote:
So I'm cautious of people who support their arguments for particular social policies because of correlational stastistics -- which correlations you find important tend to say more about you than it does about the correlations. Narrativists use that tendency in people to setup a false assumption that they can reveal later for dramatic intent (THE CALL IS COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE! comes from the assumption of the way telephones work, for example.) Which is essentially the topic of your post, just on a different topic than UFOs.


Well, regardless of the validity of the research I think we'd all be served by having a more responsible and less sensationalistic media, especially when it comes to mass murder and suicide.

Whoa! "THE CALL IS COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE!" Are you watchin me, dude! I just watched BLACK CHRISTMAS on Thanksgiving.

FLmutant wrote:
That's why I would describe Coleman as a meme-jacker -- the more successful horizontal meme is our horror that kids shoot each other in schools, and Coleman tries to graft on the meme of "and the media is at least partially to blame." Such is the nature of public discourse in the 21st century, I guess.


Yowza!

Ok, so given the logical fallacy ...

If I managed somehow to get the news media to report even more sensationalisticly on murder/suicides than they already do and there was an even larger increase in subsequent murder/suicides ... would it matter whether one caused the other?

How do propagandists, advertisers and marketeers know if their efforts are successful? How do they measure the efficacy of their efforts?

I've obviously been dealing with parapsychology too long and ideas about retropsychokinesis have contaminated my critical thinking apparatus.

SMiles

PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 8:45 pm
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