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Message
Chump Force 1
Decorated
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 Posts: 286 Location: Next in line after 'Client 9'
The big problem is not so much the amount of $$ it made this weekend, but the fact that it dropped almost 70% from opening weekend. That is huge...a drop of 50-55% is normal for a high-profile film, but this really took a dive. I'm not so sure 100mil is possible. I'm holding firm to my original prediction (Jan 15):
Quote:
I think 100mil is possible, but I would guess closer to 80million, add in international receipts, DVD sales, it will turn a huge profit, even assuming the films budget is 30-35mil and marketing is 20-25mil.
I also predict it will get a solid "B" grade from both critics and fans alike.
http://forums.unfiction.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23439
Even more disturbing (to me at least) "27 Dresses" beat Cloverfield this week and dropped less then 50%.
This could cause Paramount to pause and wait to see if a sequel is something they want to go forward with.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:53 pm
Last edited by Chump Force 1 on Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
xboyonfirex
Entrenched
Joined: 05 Dec 2007 Posts: 1069
Chump Force 1 wrote:
The big problem is not so much the amount of $$ it made this weekend, but the fact that it dropped almost 70% from opening weekend. That is huge...normally a drop of 50-55% is normal for a high-profile film, but it really took a dive. I'm not so sure 100mil is possible. I'm holding firm to my original prediction (Jan 15):
Quote:
I think 100mil is possible, but I would guess closer to 80million, add in international receipts, DVD sales, it will turn a huge profit, even assuming the films budget is 30-35mil and marketing is 20-25mil.
I also predict it will get a solid "B" grade from both critics and fans alike.
http://forums.unfiction.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23439
Even more disturbing (to me at least) "27 Dresses" beat Cloverfield this week and dropped less then 50%.
This could cause Paramount to pause and wait to see if a sequel is something they want to go forward with.
I think people have to consider the what direction this particular movie was reaching out to... Definitely ranged in the "Sci-Fi" spectrum. 27 Dresses is a general "Romantic Comedy" w/ popular/well-known actors/actresses. People would simply see the movie because of the sexy connection to "Grey's Anatomy" which has a HUGE fan base: Katherine Heigl.
Many Sci-Fi fans loved this movie, but there's also plenty of Sci-Fi fans that wanted more of a typical monster movie to it and less of a 'bitter-romance' feel to it.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:02 pm
Chump Force 1
Decorated
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 Posts: 286 Location: Next in line after 'Client 9'
xboyonfirex wrote:
I think people have to consider the what direction this particular movie was reaching out to... Definitely ranged in the "Sci-Fi" spectrum. 27 Dresses is a general "Romantic Comedy" w/ popular/well-known actors/actresses. People would simply see the movie because of the sexy connection to "Grey's Anatomy" which has a HUGE fan base: Katherine Heigl.
Many Sci-Fi fans loved this movie, but there's also plenty of Sci-Fi fans that wanted more of a typical monster movie to it and less of a 'bitter-romance' feel to it.
I also bet that 27 Dresses was a "make-up" movie this weekend...all the guys that took their significant others (or just went with their buds) had to go see a chick flick this weekend to make-up for last weekend.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:08 pm
Nighthawk
I Have 100 Cats and Smell of Wee
Joined: 14 Jul 2007 Posts: 4751 Location: Miami, Florida, USA, Earth
Quote:
This could cause Paramount to pause and wait to see if a sequel is something they want to go forward with.
A movie that cost $30M to make earned almost $50M in three days. Why wouldn't they go forward?
The movie's been getting a lot of so-so reviews because a lot of the reviewers simply didn't get the point. Everyone expected it to be solely a monster movie; it's not.
Quote:
I also bet that 27 Dresses was a "make-up" movie this weekend...all the guys that took their significant others (or just went with their buds) had to go see a chick flick this weekend to make-up for last weekend.
Out of curiosity, I asked my wife if she was interested in seeing "27 Dresses". She looked at me as if I was insane.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:09 pm
OliMango
Entrenched
Joined: 07 Oct 2007 Posts: 1189 Location: Vegas
Nighthawk wrote:
Quote:
This could cause Paramount to pause and wait to see if a sequel is something they want to go forward with.
A movie that cost $30M to make earned almost $50M in three days. Why wouldn't they go forward?
The movie's been getting a lot of so-so reviews because a lot of the reviewers simply didn't get the point. Everyone expected it to be solely a monster movie; it's not.
Quote:
I also bet that 27 Dresses was a "make-up" movie this weekend...all the guys that took their significant others (or just went with their buds) had to go see a chick flick this weekend to make-up for last weekend.
Out of curiosity, I asked my wife if she was interested in seeing "27 Dresses". She looked at me as if I was insane.
The only reason I've found that people didn't like the movie is because of the style it was filmed in. Everyone else seemed to like it.
Hell, even IMDb has it at 8.0 with 30,000 votes.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:20 pm
jennytru
Boot
Joined: 11 Jan 2008 Posts: 34 Location: NYC
Chump Force 1 wrote:
xboyonfirex wrote:
I think people have to consider the what direction this particular movie was reaching out to... Definitely ranged in the "Sci-Fi" spectrum. 27 Dresses is a general "Romantic Comedy" w/ popular/well-known actors/actresses. People would simply see the movie because of the sexy connection to "Grey's Anatomy" which has a HUGE fan base: Katherine Heigl.
Many Sci-Fi fans loved this movie, but there's also plenty of Sci-Fi fans that wanted more of a typical monster movie to it and less of a 'bitter-romance' feel to it.
I also bet that 27 Dresses was a "make-up" movie this weekend...all the guys that took their significant others (or just went with their buds) had to go see a chick flick this weekend to make-up for last weekend.
Aww come on. I had to drag my man to cloverfield last week. 27 dresses had that chick in it, that's all. The showing this weekend that I went to was sold out for cloverfield. I just don't get it. Anyhoo, this isn't just a boys club movie.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:04 pm
Everything's Magic
Unfettered
Joined: 28 Aug 2007 Posts: 491 Location: Michigan
I don't think 100mil is possible at this point.
Maybe 80mil at best, though.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:35 pm
Zaggs
Boot
Joined: 21 Jan 2008 Posts: 68
Chump Force 1 wrote:
The big problem is not so much the amount of $$ it made this weekend, but the fact that it dropped almost 70% from opening weekend. That is huge...a drop of 50-55% is normal for a high-profile film, but this really took a dive. I'm not so sure 100mil is possible. I'm holding firm to my original prediction (Jan 15):
Quote:
I think 100mil is possible, but I would guess closer to 80million, add in international receipts, DVD sales, it will turn a huge profit, even assuming the films budget is 30-35mil and marketing is 20-25mil.
I also predict it will get a solid "B" grade from both critics and fans alike.
http://forums.unfiction.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23439
Even more disturbing (to me at least) "27 Dresses" beat Cloverfield this week and dropped less then 50%.
This could cause Paramount to pause and wait to see if a sequel is something they want to go forward with.
Only if paramount is retarded. I don't think they looked to this as a blockbuster movie. When you go the viral internet advertising route you're not trying to get everyone and their mother into the theater. Monster flicks appeal to a smaller segment of the population (mostly male) and they should've known this. Not every movie has to earn 300 mil to be considered successful. It just has to meet the projections of the parent company. And if getting back 100% profit (compared to its 30mil cost, dont know if advertising is factored in) after just 2 weekends isn't near projections then Paramount is just dumb.
The were only 2 problems they did in the time before the release of the movie. The first is by keeping it secret as much as they could they allow for wildy varying expectations which will lead to the movie not meeting alot of those expectations. Then they didn't seem to emphasize the reason Rob goes back is for love (i know one trialer is about going back but I thought they didnt say why), which may have brought in more women.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:54 pm
Chump Force 1
Decorated
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 Posts: 286 Location: Next in line after 'Client 9'
Nighthawk wrote:
Quote:
This could cause Paramount to pause and wait to see if a sequel is something they want to go forward with.
A movie that cost $30M to make earned almost $50M in three days. Why wouldn't they go forward?
Because a sequel will cost much more then the original with no guarantee it will earn enough to make up the difference.
Quote:
I also bet that 27 Dresses was a "make-up" movie this weekend...all the guys that took their significant others (or just went with their buds) had to go see a chick flick this weekend to make-up for last weekend.
Out of curiosity, I asked my wife if she was interested in seeing "27 Dresses". She looked at me as if I was insane.
My wife told me I have to take her to Atonement to make up for Cloverfield
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:48 am
TP516
Decorated
Joined: 19 Jan 2008 Posts: 211 Location: Boston, MA
I'm not sure how successful a sequel could be...
I know a lot of people were very dissapointed in the movie (the ones who did not follow the ARG).
if they saw a sequel being advertised, I doubt they'd pay the $$ and go see it.
no matter how much viral marketing is used, I don't think a sequel would stir up as much hype and buzz.
"Cloverfield" seemed to be very mysterious and intriguing to mainstream.... that's the only reason it racked up $41 million on the first weekend.
I think Abrams and Reeves need to go in a different direction, for the sequel, if they wanna keep this going.
I personally don't care as I am a cloverfield fan boy. I just want the sequel to answer my questions.
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:08 am
olasnah
Veteran
Joined: 18 Dec 2007 Posts: 80
You know, I really did like this movie, but it's no surprise this movie is losing ground. Aside from the Viral marketing, (which I think most NEVER learned about), there was little effort put into the release of the film. The general advertising for the film leading to the release (aside from the clever initial trailer many months ago..and by 'clever' I mean teasing or just really freaking early to make you curious) was HORRIBLE. (And I blame this primarily on the movie's ridiculously short running time, not to mention lack of talent on the part of the studio) I've seen much worse films with far better advertising that actually did lure me into the theater. The commercials sucked. The SOL's head flying down the street was just a bit much for me (cheesy), and it's the only part of the film I don't like.
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:11 am
Nighthawk
I Have 100 Cats and Smell of Wee
Joined: 14 Jul 2007 Posts: 4751 Location: Miami, Florida, USA, Earth
Quote:
Because a sequel will cost much more then the original with no guarantee it will earn enough to make up the difference.
Why would it cost more? Arguably, they don't have to do anything differently. And, even if they did, they have working capital to spend a few more bucks on it now.
Quote:
My wife told me I have to take her to Atonement to make up for Cloverfield
That's a helluva lot more acceptable than "27 Dresses".
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:45 am
Dr. Chaos
Boot
Joined: 16 Jan 2008 Posts: 20
Considering just how effective the CGI was, I'm surprised the budget was as low as it was, it's kind of astonishing to me.
It looked like a hundred million dollar disaster flick.
A modern marvel of film today...this could have never been made twenty years ago (without looking like ass).
I'm going to go ahead and pray for a sequel if you chaps don't mind.
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:53 am
Ghidra99
Veteran
Joined: 16 Jan 2008 Posts: 127
Has anyone seen any commercials for Cloverfield since the movie came out? I watch TV fairly regularly and I haven't seen one since it opened.
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:04 am
JadedMax
Decorated
Joined: 02 Aug 2007 Posts: 157
Ghidra99 wrote:
Has anyone seen any commercials for Cloverfield since the movie came out? I watch TV fairly regularly and I haven't seen one since it opened.
Watch anything Viacom owned. There are several, still.
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:17 am
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