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 Forum index » Archive » Archive: The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!) » The Haunted Apiary (Let Op!): Puzzles
[SPEC] Coordinates and Radio Broadcast
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sfsdfd
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GunsmithCat wrote:
The spec may not address all the evidence, but that doesn't mean it's obligated to.

But if it does not, you have to fabricate an additional explanation of why the other data is ignored. Thus, it is not as "simple" as a competing theory that does account for everything. Occam would prefer the latter.
GunsmithCat wrote:
The point was that the more precise data could very well lead to the same conclusion.

But my point is that it doesn't explain why the PMs intentionally added precision to the second set of coordinates. If the precision doesn't matter, then why did they make the effort to add it? Moreover, if "radio broadcast" is the answer, then the first set of coordinates already had needless precision - why did the second set have even more?
GunsmithCat wrote:
My spec is that Melissa is using prior knowledge to create a radio wave in order to broadcast a mayday or to try and interact with her situation.

Your spec is that she has somehow either learned to clone people, hired couriers, bought packages or presents or something else for people she doesn't know and somehow made decisions on where to place them.

Heh - by that rationale, Melissa must have figured out a way to convince someone to buy some bottles of honey, cut up some paper with typed letters, stick them in the honey, and mail them to some people.

Keep in mind that these appear to be the same PMs who hosted a real-life rally by people who supposedly live in the year 2142. How'd they get here? Aren't they mystified by the complete absence of robots in this period? They're not explained! Oh no!

Fortunately, we don't need to explain a connection to the backstory - that's the job of the PMs. It's both pointless and hopeless for us to guess at that, since it could be anything. Our task is to figure out how this event is going to work, and what's expected of us to make it succeed.

I posit that if a radio were required, we would all have been given a much stronger suggestion to tote one along. We have been given coordinates, dates, and times. Showing up at that location and time should be all that's required of us to make the event work. Let the PMs worry about working it into the story framework.

- David Stein

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 10:40 am
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jegger
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sfsdfd wrote:
GunsmithCat wrote:
The spec may not address all the evidence, but that doesn't mean it's obligated to.

But if it does not, you have to fabricate an additional explanation of why the other data is ignored. Thus, it is not as "simple" as a competing theory that does account for everything. Occam would prefer the latter.


It depends on what you call "data". Your theory does not address all of the data either. If I recall correctly, the accompanying text was key in the solution of the links puzzle. Your theory completely ignores any information provided by the accompanying text. Let's see, we have our theory, which doesn't address all of the evidence, and your theory which... doesn't address all of the evidence. I think Occam would have a tough decision to make.


sfsdfd wrote:
Heh - by that rationale, Melissa must have figured out a way to convince someone to buy some bottles of honey, cut up some paper with typed letters, stick them in the honey, and mail them to some people.

Keep in mind that these appear to be the same PMs who hosted a real-life rally by people who supposedly live in the year 2142. How'd they get here? Aren't they mystified by the complete absence of robots in this period? They're not explained! Oh no!


Agreed that there is some suspension of disbelief involved, but that's not an excuse to go entirely meta and examine the coords in a vacuum.

sfsdfd wrote:
Fortunately, we don't need to explain a connection to the backstory - that's the job of the PMs. It's both pointless and hopeless for us to guess at that, since it could be anything. Our task is to figure out how this event is going to work, and what's expected of us to make it succeed.


I rather disagree with this. It is our job to figure out how the event is going to work, but it is not pointless or hopeless to guess at a connection to the backstory. In fact, examining the backstory is the first step in making a reasonable guess as to the point of the puzzle. I suppose it's possible that the links puzzle could have been solved without reading "retched out through the network tentacle", but doesn't it make the solution easier if you're able to make that connection to the backstory?

sfsdfd wrote:
I posit that if a radio were required, we would all have been given a much stronger suggestion to tote one along. We have been given coordinates, dates, and times. Showing up at that location and time should be all that's required of us to make the event work. Let the PMs worry about working it into the story framework.


I posit that we have been given a rather strong suggestion to tote one along. I believe that I've found evidence that you can read here

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:16 am
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msekolpsu
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 		Hell, I'd be up for anything at this point. It seems as though no one has figured out the Ninja Turtle reference or the secret from that same e-mail. What's up with the new wav files? Why is this so hard.

Radio? It might be a possibility. Maybe there are clues in the other puzzles we have yet to solve.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:22 am
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GunsmithCat
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sfsdfd wrote:

But if it does not, you have to fabricate an additional explanation of why the other data is ignored. Thus, it is not as "simple" as a competing theory that does account for everything. Occam would prefer the latter.


No, it doesn't. I don't need to fabricate additional explanation as to why the data is getting more precise because the data getting more precise doesn't contradict the spec. So whatever the reason is, it would remain irrelevant.

Occam's, btw, isn't "simpler is better". It's "don't make unneccassary assumptions". Which competing theory? Yours that is only valid if you ignore the entire backstory?

Which, btw, fails the test as well. If it's not really a puzzle, like you say, then why did the data change? Why not post it correctly in the first place?

Why not just post times and addresses?

Do me a favor. Stop saying Occam's. You're not even offering up a full spec to compare this one too and you're picking and choosing the evidence you think is relevant. It's pointless to debate Occam's like that.

Quote:

But my point is that it doesn't explain why the PMs intentionally added precision to the second set of coordinates. If the precision doesn't matter, then why did they make the effort to add it? Moreover, if "radio broadcast" is the answer, then the first set of coordinates already had needless precision - why did the second set have even more?


Why are you so much more concerned with the motives of the PMs and so unconcerned with the motives of the IG character responsible? Maybe if you stopped thinking out of the game so much this would make sense to you.


Quote:

Fortunately, we don't need to explain a connection to the backstory - that's the job of the PMs. It's both pointless and hopeless for us to guess at that, since it could be anything. Our task is to figure out how this event is going to work, and what's expected of us to make it succeed.


Really? Then why have a backstory? How is it you've made this distinction that all the IG material is irrelevant to a spec? It's far more pointless and hopeless to guess the motives and rationales of the PMs than it is the characters.

Naturally some pre-game stuff has to be accepted. But to say "the story doesn't really matter, I don't have to address it" while proclaiming Occam's because this theory doesn't address why data has gotten more precise is just silly.

Quote:

I posit that if a radio were required, we would all have been given a much stronger suggestion to tote one along. We have been given coordinates, dates, and times. Showing up at that location and time should be all that's required of us to make the event work. Let the PMs worry about working it into the story framework.


And I posit that if the "solution" to this is just waiting till next week, going to some spots and getting some T-Shirts that Bungie would have just done that to begin with. Your spec is that this isn't a puzzle at all, that the story is irrelevant, and this is just an invitation to stand somewhere at 7AM in the morning.

All this production just so that we can plug some numbers into a Mapquest form?

And you don't HAVE to tote one along. You don't HAVE to go to the location. That's one of reasons it makes sense. I'm much more likely to be able to tune into a radio station at a given time on a Tuesday than I am to whip out my GPS locator (wait, don't have one) and try to get to downtown Chicago (wait, work in the suburbs) at a specific time.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:24 am
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GunsmithCat
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EricG wrote:
Long time reader, first time poster. I have a few SPECs to offer.

1) Has anyone calculated the distances between coordinates in the same cities? Maybe those distances offer a clue to which radio station, such as frequency or call letters (ASCII).


I've wondered down the same route. Maybe it's even embedded in the minutes? This would be best, if true, because it would precisely the data we need.

Quote:

2) Combine the physical theory with the radio one: What if the GPS coordinates have something physical there which then guide us to which radio station to listen to?

3) I've read that a lot of the coordinates are at universities (I know the two here in Madison are on the UW campus). What if college radio is a possible method of transmission? Advertising costs would be much cheaper there.


Yeah, I thought that with the Addison stop in Chicago (Addison->Cubs->WGNAM). The University thing makes sense. Unfortunately some are really away from buildings. Maybe a billboard? Seems obtuse.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:30 am
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eMouse
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GunsmithCat wrote:
That's like saying 1 + 1 = 2, but maybe 1.00000 + 1.00000 doesn't. You think that makes sense to "the simplest explanation" ?


That's a nice argument.

However we're dealing with 1.439528 + 1.014858.

And I'm pretty sure that doesn't equal 2.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:31 am
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Andy
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 		It does if you round down Smile
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:34 am
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sfsdfd
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jegger wrote:
Your theory completely ignores any information provided by the accompanying text.

But nothing "accompanies" the coordinates and countdown on that page - except, perhaps, the phrase "Axons go hot!" If you're considering every letter and bit of data in the entire game as "accompanying," then no theory can possibly "explain" it all.
jegger wrote:
I posit that we have been given a rather strong suggestion to tote one along. I believe that I've found evidence that you can read [url=]here[/url]

That's actually pretty interesting.

However:

1) I see a suggestion that Melissa's new voice needs a non-Internet-based vector. I don't see any link to AM/FM radio. All I see is your conclusion that the vector has to be radio, without any reason given for the certainty.

Lots of things carry voice: consumer-band (AM/FM) radio, citizen-band (CB) radio, HAM radio, walkie-talkies, cell phones, television transmissions... basically, the whole electromagnetic spectrum. Are we supposed to guess, or to tote along fourteen devices? Hell, why not a physical medium? If this puzzle has anything to do with a voice carrier, then it's much more likely that we'll find dropped packages containing audio CDs with some messages from Melissa.

2) The gaping hole in this theory is that we still don't have a frequency for any coordinate. Without that, the event has a very high probability of mass failure, and I can't expect that the PMs would take that risk. So if it's radio, we'll know because the PMs will give us a clear indicator of frequency (frequencies, more likely) in Friday's update.

- David Stein

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:39 am
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jegger
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Andy wrote:
It does if you round down Smile


Good one, Andy! Very Happy

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:39 am
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GunsmithCat
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eMouse wrote:
GunsmithCat wrote:
That's like saying 1 + 1 = 2, but maybe 1.00000 + 1.00000 doesn't. You think that makes sense to "the simplest explanation" ?


That's a nice argument.

However we're dealing with 1.439528 + 1.014858.

And I'm pretty sure that doesn't equal 2.


Totally missing the point. Not doing math here. Point is that if these locations to hear a radio broadcast, with the information more precise - they're still locations to hear a radio broadcast. The change doesn't invalidate the spec.

The argument really is "the PMs wouldn't have made them more specific if being more specific wasn't necessary". Which is a totally meta, unfounded, assumption. It's possibly true - but there's no real evidence.

There's more evidence that the precision, HTML format, Time, etc., are an indication that the data before was from SPDR and this is new data from Melissa/Flea. There's embedded text and emails which suggest that. Got an email from a PM? Didn't think so.

Look, how about this. Everyone who thinks there's no special puzzle to the coords and all we have to do is wait till Tuesday and stand somewhere - go talk about it in another thread. You're not helping this one any. You've made a totally different set of assumptions than some of us and it's just going to clutter this thread debating about it here.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:41 am
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GunsmithCat
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 		Just poked at the Chicago locations to see if the seconds columns could be translated into fequencies

Was working until I got to Addison, IL. Can't seem to get it to match up to any known IL stations.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 12:04 pm
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Dorkmaster
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 		One thing, Gunsmith that I really don't think will make a difference is that the "Addison" location is actually in Bensenville. (it's JUST across the border of Addison and Elmhurst, but yeah...) I live near there (10-15 mins. away), so I can pretty much tell you though that there's no radio station based in Bensenville, to my knowledge. Pretty much we all listen to the Chicago stations, excepting one classic rock station from (I believe) Naperville, IL...
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 12:08 pm
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sfsdfd
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GunsmithCat wrote:
No, it doesn't. I don't need to fabricate additional explanation as to why the data is getting more precise because the data getting more precise doesn't contradict the spec.

But if it's gotten more precise, then it's gotten more precise for a reason. My theory is that the improved coordination is a signal that specific location is important. It mitigates away from the radio theory, which would work if you're standing within the surrounding 30 miles.

Interesting that you can construe changes to the actual numbers we're using as irrelevant, but text snips from completely different parts of the game are highly relevant. I think your definition of relevance is being twisted to support your theory.
GunsmithCat wrote:
Occam's, btw, isn't "simpler is better". It's "don't make unneccassary assumptions".

In practice, it is used to mean that given several theories with equivalent fit to the data, the one that explains the most while assuming the least tends to be correct.

So my theory is that we show up at the coordinates, at the appointed times, and see what's there. Your theory adds in a radio and the need to scan through a whole bunch of frequencies to find the right one, to catch a transmission within in a three-minute window. And your theory doesn't explain why we'd have to stand at a particular spot to do it. Thus, your theory has a weaker fit than mine: it assumes more while explaining less. Do we really need to go over this again?
GunsmithCat wrote:
Which, btw, fails the test as well. If it's not really a puzzle, like you say, then why did the data change? Why not post it correctly in the first place?

Because PMs make mistakes, too. As they did - twice! - by accidentally placing points in the ocean, and posting PST instead of PDT. And with spelling "1st Lieutenant" as "Ist Lieutenant." And with a dozen instances in the AI game.

You have real, flawed people simulating flawless computers. That explained much in the last game (and the PMs admitted as much in the endgame IRC chat.) And it likely explains this, too.
GunsmithCat wrote:
Why not just post times and addresses?

You're not real keen on this "precision" thing, are you? The address for the Smithsonian is far less specific than a GPS coordinate specifying a five-foot-radius position near the Smithsonian. That's just more evidence that we're looking for an event at a specific place - not a regional radio broadcast.
GunsmithCat wrote:
Why are you so much more concerned with the motives of the PMs and so unconcerned with the motives of the IG character responsible? Maybe if you stopped thinking out of the game so much this would make sense to you.

The purpose of this thread is to figure out what we're supposed to do next Tuesday, during three- and four-minute windows of opportunity. This necessarily leads us to the question of what the PMs expect us to do for the event to succeed - to further the game. Therefore, it's most important to consider what kind of event we can expect, in real life.

As for in-game significance: We have surprisingly little material to use to figure this out for now. There's really no discussion of any kind, anywhere in-game, about what will happen there and then. So we can sit around for hours on end and predict what we'll see and find, and how the PMs will connect whatever data we gather with the game. Or, we can focus on ensuring that the event does succeed, and reap the benefits later.

My concern is that you're going to miss whatever you're supposed to observe because you're too busy fiddling with the stupid radio.
GunsmithCat wrote:
Naturally some pre-game stuff has to be accepted. But to say "the story doesn't really matter, I don't have to address it" while proclaiming Occam's because this theory doesn't address why data has gotten more precise is just silly.

Heh. By that same reasoning, some people choose religion over science because science can't explain anything before the Big Bang.

It's a balance, really. Your theory connects better with the story, true. But it necessitates a much more difficult event to host, a much more difficult event to participate in (without the frequencies), and a sloppy fit with PM's decision to provide GPS coordinates rather than just stating "Cleveland, Ohio." My theory has no fit with the story because we don't have that data yet: the connection will be apparent from what the PMs give us at those locations.

I suggest that you consider some of the puzzles given to us in the AI game. Some had no connection with the story - ever. They were simply puzzles that we solved to get some information that furthered the story. Why would Cloudmaker (the boat, not the group) have constructed an altitude map for us that, built with clay, spelled out the word "Founder?" What is the significance of the island set, the clay, the altitudes? Nothing - it was just a puzzle.

What is the significance of the plastic bear filled with honey and letters? Does the honey symbolize a sticky situation? Should we chemically analyze the honey? Does the bear symbolize a scary monster? Should we research bears? ... Or maybe we just pull out the letters, put them together, and visit the website. Case closed. No story connection needed.

In these cases, you're missing the forest for the trees. The whole point of the puzzle is to get information. Let the PMs connect it to the story - if it connects at all.
GunsmithCat wrote:
And I posit that if the "solution" to this is just waiting till next week, going to some spots and getting some T-Shirts that Bungie would have just done that to begin with.

I agree, which is why I doubt that it's a T-shirt (or Halo 2 demo) giveaway. It's more likely that we will be given puzzle pieces of some kind.

That's how the ARM rally played out during the AI game. Attendees were given jigsaw puzzle pieces - and some pieces were missing. Assembled, they gave most of the clues to solve another puzzle. Much analysis, and even brute-force computing, had to be done to reach a solution.

So "showing up" wasn't the sole point of that event - and is likely to not be the sole point of this one.
GunsmithCat wrote:
And you don't HAVE to tote one along. You don't HAVE to go to the location. That's one of reasons it makes sense. I'm much more likely to be able to tune into a radio station at a given time on a Tuesday than I am to whip out my GPS locator (wait, don't have one) and try to get to downtown Chicago (wait, work in the suburbs) at a specific time.

OK - so you can fiddle with your radio in your office, fifteen miles away, on every frequency, to try to catch a radio broadcast. Bet you don't find anything except N*Sync - and good luck connecting that with ilovebees.com.

I'll just visit and keep my eyes and ears open. Fortunately, the three Cleveland locations are near my workplace and are conveniently timed for the beginning of the day, lunchtime, and the end of the day, so I can fit them around my job.

- David Stein

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 12:17 pm
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GunsmithCat
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 		Aaah, I wondered where the Bensenville went.

The other hang up is some coords like:

-081.607317,41.511567

Don't seem to be capable of being translated to either an AM or FM frequency near Cleveland.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 12:19 pm
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Dorkmaster
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 		Gunsmith, that's sfsdfd messing with the Cleveland stuff to prove you wrong.
(Sorry, just a joke... I had to with the irony of the location/coordinates stuff Laughing )
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2004 12:41 pm
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